Tuesday 20 October 2020

Brexit heading for the no-deal door

Michael Gove, Minister for the Cabinet Office and former columnist and home editor for The Times, has been spending all God's hours working on a blueprint for Britain leaving the EU without a trade deal. The so-called no deal Brexit. Now I suspect we really are on the verge of leaving without any trade deal. We will be on our own. And we will reach that point because of a massive miscalculation by our side or the EU's side. Both lots are currently engaged in a brinkmanship game which if it was poker between the last two players it would end up with one grabbing piles of cash from the table and the other ruined. In other words there would be a winner and a loser. In this case, if there is no trade deal there will be two losers. No winners. Britain is a hugely important trading partner for the EU. And the EU is a hugely important trading partner for Britain. So if the poker game ends with no winners it will be disastrous, whatever Boris says. He claims a no-deal Brexit will be fine and we will survive very nicely thank you. What we need is two winners, not two losers and the only way of reaching that amicable result is for a pretty big concession to be made on both sides. The two major issues are fishing and business competition. Nothing has really moved on these two issue for such a long time that this is where I fear the miscalculation will be made. Each side goes to bed at night believing that the other side will concede. But it's not going to happen with the two negotiators we have, Lord David Frost (why is he a lord?) and Michel Barnier (who behaves like a lord). They are stuck in glue. They cannot move forward or backward. Suddenly before we know it it will be too late, everyone involved will stamp their feet in frustration, and Britain will go marching into an uncertain future. Covid AND no-deal Brexit. What a legacy for Boris. Gove seems so pleased with his no-deal preparations that I almost suspect he desperately wants it to go ahead to see if it will all work according to his plan. We are I fear sleep-walking into the worst decision affecting all our lives since William The Conqueror said yes to a battle in Hastings.

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