Will the Nevada caucuses clarify or confuse the Democratic race?

After the debacle of the Iowa caucuses when an app went haywire and the vote counting became confused and unreliable, the state of Nevada is doing the same caucus system today although they have sensibly decided against using an app. But things could go wrong again. What the Democrats need more than anything is a bit more clarity about who is going to be the frontrunner for the nomination, and Nevada could do just that, if the voting system works properly. Nevada is a different sort of state. The Latino population is large and crucial for the Democratic candidates, plus there's the Las Vegas factor. This is a city stuffed with restaurant, casino and hotel workers most of whom would normally vote according to the wishes of their union, the Culinary Union. But this time, unlike in 2008 when they asked their members to vote for Obama, the union has not favoured any of the candidates. So there is not going to be an easy ride for any of them. Bernie Sanders thinks he's going to scoop up more votes than anyone but not everyone likes his Medicare for all policy. The key ingredient is the Latino vote. If the Latinos come out in force, it could change the arithmatic and bring Sanders' bandwagon to an end or at least slow it down. After the most recent TV debate, also in Las Vegas, when Elizabeth Warren came out fighting, many of the voters might decide to change their mind about whom to support. The feisty performance by Warren, particularly when she attacked Mike Bloomberg, could help her in today's caucuses. But will there be a clear winner? Will Nevada point the way for the nomination or just add to the confusion? There are still eight candidates left in the frame. Apart from the leading candidates, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Mike Bloomberg and Amy Klobuchar, there is also Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer. By the end of Nevada two or maybe three will have to drop out if they score badly, leaving the biggest bust-up for Super Tuesday on March 3 when the field will narrow further. Bloomberg is not featuring in either Nevada or South Carolina later this month, so he has to do exceptionally well on March 3 when 14 states plus Americans abroad vote or he will be out. I suspect the Nevada state organisers will have learned the lessons of Iowa and will be able to declare a clearer winner than the neck-and-neck results in Iowa and New Hampshire when Sanders and Buttigieg shared the honours. My prediction? Klobuchar, Gabbard and Steyer will fall by the way side, Warren will have a mini surge and will close the gap with Sanders and Buttigieg, and even Biden will do reasonably well. But either Sanders or Buttigieg will win by a couple of percentage points. All of them, however, will claim a victory of sorts, just by doing better than in the first two state votes.