Could the Iowa caucuses produce a surprise winner?

The Iowa caucuses, the bizarre procedure the state uses for picking its favourite candidate for the White House, whether Republican or Democrat, have historically chosen the man or woman who goes on to win the relevant party's nomination. So the key votes tomorrow night will give a pretty good idea who is going to be picked to stand against Trump in the November election. It's not a sure thing. For example the billionaire Mike Bloomberg is not even standing in Iowa. But the other key candidates are and the question is: will the caucus representatives across the state go for the obvious candidate because it's the easiest and safest path to take or will they go wild and choose an outsider to stir everything up and raise the excitement level? If they do the former, they will choose Joe Biden, former vice president and frontrunner-candidate, if they go for the latter, could they select a woman, but not Elizabeth Warren? The hot long-odds favourite is Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. I think it would be extraordinary if she wins Iowa, but not absolutely out of the question if the Iowa citizens want to stamp their mark on this 2020 election. The only question that Democrats have to struggle with is not who is best to represent the Democratic Party but who has the best chance of ousting Donald Trump. I have said from the beginning that although Joe Biden has a lot of good qualities, and has the experience of government, I really don't see him knocking Trump off his perch. Bernie Sanders is doing really really well and has impressive funding behind him but is the United States after three years of Trump ready for someone who would be an exact opposite? I don't think the American people are yearning for a Sanders-style socialist administration. I picked Senator Kamala Harris as my favourite to win the Democratic nomination but, sadly, she bowed out. If it's to be a woman, which I would welcome, that narrows the choice between Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, and I think I prefer the latter. Warren has waged a tough and effective campaign but there has been little evidence of star quality. She is a good also-ran in my view. Amy Klobuchar would introduce into the nomination fight a genuine sense of surprise and intrigue and mystery. None of these attributes can be ascribed to Biden, Sanders or Warren. Iowa will probably be too conservative with a small 'c' to go for Klobuchar but surely there must be a temptation not to select the obvious, one might argue boring, candidate? I strongly believe that having a woman taking on Trump will provoke more of a competition and raise at least the possibility that the country will decide, "We've had four years of Trump, President Klobuchar sounds cool". If she wins the nomination, and Iowa choose her tomorrow night, the state will be more than satisfied that once again it has picked the right candidate. On the other hand, what's more likely is that Biden will win, he will get the nomination eventually and will be defeated soundly by Trump in November.