Friday 28 February 2020

Mixed messages from the coronavirus crisis

It's difficult to know who to believe or who to listen to when deciding what to do about coronavirus. Can you fly to Italy or not? Can you attend a marathon contest? What about a concert or a football match or just going to the local supermarket? One lot of people, the sceptics/realists say, "Oh for goodness sake, look how many people have died from coronavirus, it's tiny compared with the number who die every year from flu." Yeah, but flu is flu, it doesn't soun so bad and most people get it and survive fine. Coronavirus is so infectious you can pick it up almost anywhere, and those who die suffer from grievous breathing problems. Not nice, and scary for their family and friends and work colleagues. It also sounds more deadly than simple flu. Also, you can have a flu jab whereas there's no antidote to this latest virus. Only the Israelis seem to be confident of creating an antidote within the next few months. Most other experts are talking of at least a year. By then, what will the world look like? Trump keeps on saying that he has everything under control as far as the United States is concerned. But he is very likely to be proved wrong. The virus entered the US not that long ago and already it's zipping around gabbing people in states all over the country. Very soon the US authorities are going to be talking about thousands of people affected. Here in UK, the figures are very low, fewer than 20. But the first death has been announced, and, again, there is every chance that the numbers will increase rapidly. Health experts and politicians seem to be keeping their fingers crossed that it will all stop, perhaps when Spring and warmer weather arrive. The trouble is, is it better to assume the worst and close all schools, universities, churches etc for the foreseeable future? Or stop all flights? Think of the business and economic damage that would cause. Over-reacting is as bad as under-reacting. We can't close the world down. On the other hand look what happened in Iran. They blatantly failed to take enough measures and the virus is spreading all over the place, reaching the highest in the land. There is a pretty good argument for banning all flights in and out of Iran, and the same for China and possibly South Korea, the three worst hit countries. But, again, the implications of that sort of decision would be horrendous. The World Health Organisation isn't helping by putting out statements saying there could be a pandemic, or a pandemic could be imminent, or a pandemic is unavoidable. With every continent except the Antarctic recording coronavirus cases, we already have an epidemic of sorts already. Comparisons with flu don't help. If only we could trust our leaders to get a grip!

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