A deal with the Taliban is imminent, apparently

Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo and Robert O'Brien, national security adviser, have now all said they are optimistic there will be a deal soon with the Taliban. By the end of this month, according to Trump. Unfortunately this doesn't mean the war is about to come to an end and Afghanistan will become a democracy-loving, corruption-free nation, dragging itself out of the Middle Ages and into a bright future for the first time for...ever. This is just the first phase in which, according to Pentagon officials, the US-led coalition and Taliban will dramatically reduce attacks against each other for an initial seven-day period to demonstrate commitment to the cause of peace. I can understand a total cessation of violence for a set period but I fail to see how it will be possible to agree on a reduced level of violence. How much reduced, and what happens if in the seven days a bomb goes off? It should be a total ceasefire or nothing. Anything else makes little sense. But the form of words will hopefully make that clearer when the "agreement" is announced. IF there is a preliminary deal in which violence comes down dramatically, the Taliban will have to sign up to discussions with their fellow Afghans about the way forward. Under the somewhat bizarre language, the Taliban will need to talk to senior people associated with the Kabul government but not representing the government. This is because the Taliban has so far refused to talk to the government of President Ashraf Ghani. The American negotiators involved in the talks in Doha, Qatar, hope that once the wider discussions begin in Afghanistan, eventually the Taliban will back down and start negotiating direct with the Kabul government, with the aim of having some of their top leaders helping to form a new government. This is a long way away. But, unless there is another about-turn by Trump - like he did in September when that plan to invite Taliban representatives to meet at Camp David for a signing ceremony was scrapped - we should be hearing a Big Announcement within the next two weeks. The Taliban appears ready to play ball although they will no doubt expect US troops to start immediately flying out of the country in a set withdrawal timetable. Mark Esper, the US defence secretary, has said that he has contingency plans to reduce the total American military presence from the current 13,000 to 8,600, whether there is a deal or not, claiming that that would be enough troops on the ground to continue performing the necessary missions. I find that hard to believe if there is no deal. Of the 13,000 US troops in Afganistan around 5,000 are engaged in counter-terrorist operations, and if the violence carries on at the present level, it would be foolish to send any of the soldiers home. Better to maintain full strength until the Taliban has shown its commitment to peace by throwing away their weapons and going home to tend their poppy crops. But Trump is desperate to bring them all home. After more than 18 years of war, that is not surprising. But the Taliban will just exploit any sign of weakness. They have been in this game for so long they are going to get what they want when they want. I'm afraid that is the reality. And if Trump orders 5,000 or so troops home before all the violence has stopped, the Taliban will feel and act victorious. It will also give them the upper hand when they start talking to their fellow countrymen about a long-lasting political settlement.