Saturday 1 February 2020

In the end the Huawei crisis just withered away

The Huawei 5G decision for the UK government was being hailed as a mighty tussle between London and Washington. There were all kinds of dire predictions and warnings from Trump downwards that if Boris and his cabinet allowed the Chinese communications giant to get embedded into Britain's next-generation mobile phone and other digital networks, all hell would let loose. Super secret intellgence-sharing would be cut back, there would be no nice trade deal with the US, trust would be for ever damaged and Boris and Trump would no longer be "friends". I can't count the number of terribly senior US officials who popped over to London to add their voice of doom if Huawei 5G was allowed anywhere near the UK. The pressure on Boris was immense. Boris did not give in and decided what he was always going to decide which was to give Huawei limited access, and not to sensitive areas such as the intelligence services, military installations and nuclear power stations. Incidentally the last time I looked China was investing massively in the UK's next lot of nuclear power stations. A bit of a contradiction there perhaps? Anyway, Mike Pompeo came over to see Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary, and Boris to provide the last heavyweight pressure on the UK government to row back on its Huawei decision and review it all over again. Boris said no way. So Pompeo stopped making warning noises and announced that the US and UK would cooperate to make sure nasty Chinese spies didn't plant sneaky stuff into the 5G networks. And, as an afterthought he said the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing club of the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand would be unaffected. Ha!! So what was all the fuss about? It looks like Sir Andrew Parker, director-general of MI5, knew what he was talking about when he said he believed the intelligence-sharing would go on as before with or without Huawei. So why did Pompeo go on and on about it? I suspect the US is desperate to find a system that is as good if not better than Huawei's and wanted the UK to be involved. But he lost the argument. I had my own misgivings about allowing a Chinese company with obligatory ties to the Chinese government to install 5G into our networks. But if the UK intelligence services agree that steps can be taken to keep all really sensitive stuff a million miles from Huawei's prying ears and eyes, then I guess it will all work out fine. The Huawei crisis is over. Next is trade. It's perhaps worth reminding everyone that the UK already trades with the US. Some of our companies, like BAe, have huge stakes in the US defence industry. However, what Boris has in mind is to have a special trade agreement with the US which will allow tariff-free sales. Well, justl ike the Huawei thing was resolved, so will the trade deal. There WILL be a trade deal but I don't suppose Trump will make it easy. America First is his catchphrase and that's the way he will play it. But the Boris government showed they wouldn't buckle under the intense pressure from Washington over Huawei and now they have to be tough and strong and unrelentingly Britain First when the negotiations begin. You don't play weak with a guy like Trump. You play hard ball. It's what he will expect and now he knows, from the Huawei confrontation, that his friend Boris will not just roll over. All of which makes me feel quite optimistic post-Brexit.

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