What might happen in 2026

At some point in 2026 President Vladimir Putin is going to win in Ukraine. The war will carry on throughout the winter months but then out of desperation, the fourth version of the Trump peace settlement package will be agreed by both sides. Zelensky will be forced to agree to hand over the whole of Donbas which is what Putin wants. Zelensky will then hold an election and he will lose. He will be succeeded by a tough military commander and Ukraine will be given a date, five years away, to join the European Union. No European troops will be allowed by Moscow to keep the peace in Ukraine. Europe will feel totally let down by Washington and the Trans-Atlantic alliance will be more fragile than ever. The second phase of the Gaza peace settlement will go ahead but so slowly as to make no difference for the Palestinian people. Hamas will refuse to disarm totally, apart from a handful of AK47s and grenade-launchers, but a fragile peace is maintained. Trump restrains Netanyahu from going full-scale back into central and northern Gaza to try and finish off Hamas. Reconstruction begins but then halts after renewed clashes between Hamas and Israel. The peace deal will look tenuous throughout the year. Elsewhere in the world, China will launch half a dozen dress rehearsals for invading Taiwan, and North Korea will set off a nuclear test explosion over the Japanese Sea. The US econonmy will boom as Trump's tarriff campaign finally works and US businesses become more and more independent and less-reliant on imports. The French government will collapse, twice, and in the UK Keir Starmer will be ousted after devastating local elections in May. Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, will succeed him. But the small-boats immigration crisis will continue and the NHS will be hit by a series of crises. Very little good news expected.

Drone attack on Putin's home or scam?

Donald Trump is angry, Volodymyr Zelensky denies it, Putin rang Trump to tell him about it. It's either a huge story or a piece of Russian black propaganda. It has become a ritual prior to peace talks betwqeen Zelensky and the US for Putin to order a major bombing ofensive on Ukraine, just to remind everyone that he can do it whenever and how many times he likes. It's a deliberate show of force to add a little more urgency to the peace talks and to persuade Zelensky to cave in and agree to a settlement which will be solely in Moscow's favour. It hasn't worked so far. But would Zelensky adopt the same tactic? Just after a sitdown with Trump at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Zelensky, according to Putin, ordered a massive drone attack - 91 long-range drones - on his state residence in Novogorod in northwestern Russia. All the drones were shot down, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, claimed. When Putin smartly rang Trump to tell him and complain, Trump became kind of convinced it was true and expressed his anger. But Zelensky said it never happened and asked where was the proof. There certainly haven't been any photographic images of drones heading towards the state resadence. But if it is true, and Putin is telling the truth for the first time in his life, then it would be a pretty stupid thing to do if Zelensky is hoping to keep Trump on side to broker an end to the war. If it's all fake, as Zelensky is insisting, then it's just another attempt by Putin to skewer the peace negotiations. Surely someone must know? How about America's spy satellites? Do they hold the truth?

US military hits a target in Venezuela

If it wasn't for a brief comment by Donald Trump during a TV interview over the weekend, we would know nothing about a supposed US strike on a "big (drugs) facility in Venezuela". The Pentagon, Central Command, CIA etc are saying nothing. But Trump said it. How the strike was carried out, whether by an airstrike, a drone strike, a Tomahawk cruise missile strike, a special forces strike or a covert CIA sabotage strike, we just don't know. Even the government of Venezuela has said nothing which makes me wonder whether it has happened at all. Perhaps Trump has preempted it because he gave his authority for a strike and it hasn't actually happened yet. Whatever the case, it's obvious that Trump is now stepping up the pressure on Nicolas Maduro, the ghastly leader of Venezuela, to accept the offer to flee safely to some country that will take him. No doubt we will find out more in due course, but if there has been a land attack it will be the first time the US military has launched an attack on Venezuelan territory. Until now, the focus has been on vessels coming out of Venezuela loaded up with drugs and drugs smugglers. Watch out, Maduro! PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH. CHECK IT OUT ON AMAZON.

Zelensky is right about Putin

Zelensky is meeting with Trump in Florida to try and close the gap in the 20-point peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine. It's still a big gap because it revolves around the 15-20 per cent of Donbas in eastern Ukraine which Zelensky's troops are still controlling. But clearly Trump hopes Zelensky will move closer to his plan which is to turn the whole of Donbas, including the territory seized by the Russians, into an ecnomic zone which is free of all troops. Zelensky knows beyond any doubt that whatever comes out of the Florida meeting, Putin will reject it. Zelensky said as much before he began talks with Trump. Putin, he said, doesn't want peace, he wants war. He is totally right, and if Trump thinks otherwise, he is fooling himself. Putin has never wanted peace, despite Trump's insistence that the Russian leader DOES seek peace. Putin has said over and over again that he will take the whole of Donbas for Russia, whether by diplomacy or military force. Zelensky says he can't for constituional, moral and every other reason, hand over territory still in Ukrainian hands. So, total impasse. It's difficult to envisage what Trump can come up with in today's Florida meeting that will change this. READ MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH!!

Trump's big gains and big losses in 2025

In some of the key areas of foreign and domestic policy, President Donald Trump has enjoyed remarkable success in his first year of office. Notably, illegal immigration has come down so sharply that border police are reporting that the number of attempts by people to cross over from Mexico has been cut by more than 80 per cent. Sine the border between Mexico and the United States is nearly 2,000 miles long that is a significant achievement. The economy, too, is showing signs of improving growth, with figures for the three months up to September showing a rise from 3.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent. That represents the best growth in the US economy for two years. Trump has promised that next year will see a boom in the economy. The imposition of trade tariffs across the world have been more controversial but it forced every country to renegotiate arrangements with the US and, in some cases, have led to retaliatory tariffs by other countries, especially China. However, the tariffs were put in place in order to reduce dependency on imports from other countries and to expand business and industry in the US. So far, while the rest of the world has had to readjust trade relations with the US, Trump’s tariffs have not yet brought down the cost of living. The cost of certain foods has continued to rise. On the world stage, the president has played a dominating role but despite a constant round of talks and meetings and peace proposals, Trump has been unable to persuade President Putin, the Russian leader, to end his war against Ukraine. In that sense it has been a frustrating year for Trump who vowed to stop the war within 24 hours of taking office. The year is also ending with surprise attacks by US forces against Isis in northern Nigeria. Trump predicted some time ago that he might be forced to take military action against terrorists in Nigeria who were killing and abducting Christians, many of them children. But the strikes which began last week, and were coordinated with the Nigerian government, took everyone by surprise. For a president who wanted to bring wars to an end, 2025 has been a busy one for the US military: US B-2 bombers joined the Israeli air force in targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities in June., and there have been US airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen and against Isis in Syria.; plus the threat of airstrikes against drugs cartels in Venezuela. The US still has an armada of warships off Venezuela, attacking suspected drug-trafficking boats, and piling on pressure on President Nicolas Maduro, the regime leader in Venezuela, to step down and go into exile. Like the failure to bring the war to an end in Ukraine, the confrontation with Maduro has yet to produce results. Overall, this year has been a mixture of considerable success and frustrating setbacks for the Trump administration. Trump’s popularity ratings at home have also dropped. Perhaps 2026 will see the economic boost Trump has promised and a better future for Ukraine, with Putin finally agreeing to a compromise land-deal settlement. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES. CHECK IT OUT ON AMAZON.

Trump's new war in Nigeria

In nearly 12 months of Trump Part Two, the US has been at war B-2 bomber-style against Iran - the nuke-bashing strikes - at war with rebel forces in Yemen, to stop them launching drones and cruise missiles at merchant ships in the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea, at war with Isis in Syria, threatening war of sorts against Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and now sending missiles and bombs against Isis in Northern Nigeria. Quite a list of aggressive action by a president who wanted and still wants desperately to end the war in Ukraine without having American soldiers involved. Where next will he point his missiles? Not against Russia, that's for sure. But the spat of missile strikes will show the world that Trump means business and the Bad Guys better watch out. But none of these bombing missions is going to change the strategic realities that exist on this planet, vis a vis, Russia and Putin, and China and Xi Zinping. All this other stuff is really peripheral at a time when Putin is seriously trying to recast Russia as a revised Soviet empire, and Xi Zinping is noving closer to his 2027 deadline for resolving the Taiwan issue by force or diplomacy. I can't imagine this Nigeria adventure will do much to stop Isis from its murderous targeting of Christians. And nothing, so far, has caused Putin to worry about carrying on the war against Ukraine. PLEASE BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, REVIEWERS SAY IT'S FANTASTIC. CHECK IT OUT ON AMAZON AND GOODREADS.

Yet another version of the Ukrainian peace plan

Bit by bit, inch by inch, a formula for bringing the war in Ukraine to an end is being sewn together. It's pow like a giant tapestry with a multitude of different concepts aimed, basiczlly, at trying to please Putin. I somehow doubt Putin is in a mood to do business with anyone, especially the Ukrainians but let's see. He has Christmas to read the proposals and put his red pencil through it. The biggest idea is to turn a large chunk of the Donbas region into a demilitarised zone and monitored by an international force. I would have thought that would be a no no for Putin. But perhaps Trump will at last put maximum pessure on Putin to do a deal.