This is the big week for Ukraine and Venezuela

This coming week is, I suspect, the one in which Donald Trump wants to wrap up Ukraine and Venezuela. War to end in Ukraine and war to begin in Venezuela. He will succeed with neither. Despite all the comings and goings over the weekend and in the next few days, it seems highly unlikely that Moscow will announce concessions to bring the war in Ukraine to an end by Christmas. It just won't happen. Putin claims he is in a frame of mind to talk about a settlement but as he will no doubt repeat to Trump's man, Steve Witkoff, when he arrives in Moscow, he will sign nothing unless it's on his terms. The terms he likes are contained in Trump's now infamous 28-point plan which is so pro-Russia it might as well have been drawn up by the Russians. Well, actually, it was, when Witkoff met up with Kirill Dmitriev, his Russian counterpart, when they met in Miami. Dmitriev, like Witkoff, is not a diplomat but a businessman who overseas Russia's Wealth Fund. Anyway, what they concocted together might as well have been written in Russian it was so pro-Moscow. Witkoff is off to Moscow tomorrow to see Putin to talk about the revised plan which has 19 points, not 28. I see little hope of converting Putin to agreeing to anything. As for Venezuela, Trump says he has made up his mind what he is going to do about the drug cartels and Nicolas Maduro, the leader in Caracas. But will this be the week when Maduro and the rest of us discover what it is Trump has decided. It could well be this week but it will surely fall well short of an invasion.

Trump in new threat to Venezuela

Donald Trump has announced the closure of airspace around Venezuela, indicating that air attacks might be imminent on drug-cartel targets in the country. Trump doesn't have the power or authority to close airspace over another country but he has effectively done just that by warning all airlines, as well as drug and human traffickers, to stay out of Venezuelan airspace. Obviously, Trump's telephone chat with Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan dictator, in the last few days can't have gone very well because in a Truth Social posting today, the USA president gave the strongest hint yet that he intends to authorise some form of interventionist military action. The US military is off or close to Venezuela in huge force, with the aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, ready with its wing of fighter bombers to attack any targets on Trump's list. Plus there are now 15,000 military personnel, based on amphibious assault ships and on a base in Puerto Rico, all primed for action. The whole region is bristling with American firepower. Maduro has mobilised thousands of troops. But it's more likely the US will cary out airstrikes rather than put boots on the ground, although Trump has not ruled this out. So, it looks like the early stages of shooting suspected drug-carrying boats out of the water is nearing an end and the next stage aimed at eliminating Venezuela's cocaine-trafficking industry, and the political and military leaders who are allegedly linked to the cartels, is about to be launched. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, STARRING REBECCA STRONG.

Trump slams the door on migration after shooting

It might be a natural emotional response to suspend all migration from Third World countries into the United States after the shooting of two National Guards soldiers by an Afghan immigrant. But, particularly for the thousands of Afghans who are desperate to leave the Taliban rule in Afghanistan and for those who have already been granted temporary status in the US, Donald Trump's decision must have come as a massive blow to their hopes of a safer and more prosperous future. Tens of thousands of Afghans were allowed into the US after the Taleban returned to power in 2021 and while some have already been granted residency rights, the majority are still waiting for confirmation that they can expect American nationality status. All that is now on hold. Likewise, for those still in Afghanistan and waiting for permission to move to the US, the door has been slammed shut. All these people are being punished for the sins - alleged sins - of one Afghan migrant who repaid the generosity of the US by attacking two soldiers on the streets of Washington DC, one of whom, 20-year-old Sarah Beckstrom, has now tragically died of her injuries. The other soldier is fighting for his life. Many of the other Afghans who have settled in the US are already proving their value as citizens, working in good jobs and providing for their families. It would be shameful if they are sent back to Afghanistan because of the national anger over the appalling action of one deranged gunman.

Washington DC becoming troop city

The attack on two National Guardsmen in the heart of Washington DC was horrendous and inexplicable. Why would an Afghan who had served with a CIA-backed unit in Afghanistan feel the need to drive across the US from his home state, Washington, to try and assassinate soldiers in the capital just doing their job? It makes no sense. But the alleged guilty man, now critically injured, like his two victims, must have some twisted view about having soldiers on the streets. But what seems a bit strange is that Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, has reacted by sending 500 more National Guardsmen into the capital. Deploying troops on the streets in any city was a dubious decision in the first place, and the sight of hundreds of soldiers in uniform patrolling Washington never looked right. There are so many different police forces in the capital already, one wonders why they aren't all tripping over each other. Sending another 500 seems to me to be a gut reaction which will just make everyone think of Washington as a dangerous city. Which it isn't. This was, hopefully, a one-off shooting committed by someone with serious mental health problems. It doesn't really justify pouring more troops into the capital.

Trump's new special Ukraine negotiator

It’s said that when President Trump talks about his man in the room with the Russians and the Ukrainians, he still simply refers to Dan Driscoll as the “drone guy”. There’s more to Driscoll, however, than his espousal of the virtues of technology on the modern battlefield. Already a rising star in Trump’s firmament after his appointment, at 38, as the youngest US Army secretary in US history, he has now been plucked to be the president’s point man to end the war in Ukraine. In an administration where a meteoric rise can often be followed by a stratospheric fall, insiders suggest that Driscoll may prove to be a survivor in Team Trump. Indeed, some Washington sources suggest Driscoll is more trusted by the White House than his Pentagon boss, Pete Hegseth, the Defence Secretary, to deliver sensitive messages on the world stage. It was notably Driscoll, not Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, nor Steve Witkoff, Trump’s ubiquitous special envoy, nor Hegseth, who was personally chosen by the president to meet with President Zelensky in Kyiv to outline the 28-point peace plan which had been crafted between the US and Russia, without Ukrainian participation. Now Driscoll is in Abu Dhabi, speaking with an official Russian delegation to discuss the Trump peace package which has unnerved Kyiv and European leaders and led to a counter proposal, with some of the most controversial clauses deleted to form a 19-point settlement proposal. So trusted is Driscoll in the White House that he is effectively on his own with the Russians, according to sources. There is no pack of diplomats and military officials to back him up. One former senior Pentagon official explained his extraordinary new status in the Trump administration: “He is a Yale law roommate of JD Vance.” While it is true Driscoll is a longstanding friend of the vice president, he has made such an impression since he took over as army secretary (the civilian head of the army), rumours have been circulating for weeks that he is the natural replacement for Hegseth, were Trump to take against the former Fox News presenter. Hegseth’s leadership of the Pentagon has been beset with wholesale sackings and warnings of lie-detector tests for suspected disloyal officials. Reports of a personality clash with Driscoll have been dismissed by Hegseth as fake news. Colleagues say it is unlikely that Driscoll would have clashed with Hegseth. He is personable, easy-going but also super-efficient and has won praise from within Congress for being open and cooperative. Born in Boone, North Carolina, he came from a family with a military background. His grandfather served in the army in the Second World War as a decoder and his father was an infantryman in Vietnam. He was commissioned in the army in 2007 and saw active service in Iraq in 2009 with the 10th Mountain Division, in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. After leaving active duty, he went to Yale law school where he met and befriended the future vice president. He then moved into investment banking and at one point was chief operating officer of a $200 million venture capital fund. He married his high school sweetheart and they have two children. He caught Trump’s eye because of his espousal of drones as the way forward, encouraging and inspiring army chiefs to adapt to the new style of warfare, highlighted so dramatically in the war between Russia and Ukraine. “He’s a serious guy who is willing to have a conversation in a way that is both professional and shows he has a cogent worldview,” a Democratic congressman told reporters. Driscoll has been present at all the recent meetings arranged to promote the latest Ukraine peace efforts. After a few days in Kyiv, accompanied by General Randy George, US Army chief of staff, he flew to Geneva to join Rubio and other diplomats for discussions with European officials, including Jonathan Powell, UK national security adviser; and, finally, to Abu Dhabi, arriving on Monday evening. As chief executive of an organisation consisting of nearly one million active, national guard and reserve soldiers and more than 265,000 civilians, Driscoll always had three goals: to serve in the military, to attend law school and to be in politics. His political ambitions have yet to be realised but with Trump and Vance behind him, he looks set for a glowing future. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, A PAPERBACK DESCRIBED AS BRILLIANT AND EXCITING BY REVIEWERS

Russia and Europe/US/Ukraine are in parallel universes

Whatever "the West" comes up with to end the war in Ukraine, Putin is going to reject it for two reasons: first, he won't sign anything unless it gives him everything he wants (and this was pretty much entrenched in Trump's 28-point peace plan - all in Moscow's favour); and second, because it suits him to carry on the war. He has built a war economy and no one or hardly anyone in Russia is protesting and he believes that if he carries on attacking Ukraine, in the end, Kyiv will just capitulate, and then Putin gets even more than his wildest dreams - the subjugation of an irritating neighbour. So, unless the 28-point plan, now reduced to 19 points after meddling by Kyiv and Europe, is rewriten once again and becomes more like Trump's original offer, the war will go on and on. All this desperate scrambling around to get a peace deal before Christmas will be to no avail. Some papers are already headlining their Ukraine stories as "Peace in Ukraine". Who, I mean who, are they kidding? Putin doesn't even know the meaning of peace, but he does know the meaning of war. War is destabilising for the whole of Europe and that's precisely what he wants.

The European version of Trump's plan for Ukraine garotted by Moscow

Surprise surprise, the first comment about Europe's rush to get Trump's 28-point peace plan for Ukraine rewritten in favour of Kyiv is entirely negative. Well, of course it is. Why does anyone think that Moscow will agree to a peace plan which doesn't stick to the Trump blueprint which is almost totally pro-Russia. A Russian official told reporters Moscow liked the version put out by Trump and ridicules the adapted one emerging from Geneva talks between Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, and European and Ukrainian officials. Presumably the modified version which has got everyone bar Moscow so excited, allows Ukraine to apply for Nato, rejects any handover of eastern Ukraine to Russia and says Kyiv can keep all the lovely weapons it has received from the West over the last near-four years. Moscow will laugh this one out of court and Ukraine will have to face another long freezing winter of war and more war. What beats me is how the US/Euopre/Ukraine could cobble up a new peace blueprint without taking into account the obvious fact that Putin will just hurl it in the wastebin. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER AGENT REDRUTH AS A GIFT FOR CHRISTMAS. REVIEWERS HAVE ALL PRAISED IT.