The war in Gaza stops for a polio crisis breather

If only the war in Gaza would stop because of the death of 40,000 people, 17,000 of them Hamas fighters according to Israel. But there is no sign of that. The fighting will come to a halt, or an agreed halt, tomorrow, to allow the World Health Authority to enter Gaza and start the massive task of vaccinating 640,000 children against polio. They will have three days, an almost impossible task. It is a tragic and bitter irony that the first evidence of a child polio victim in 25 years should come in a war where thousands of homes have been obliterated by artillery and rocket fire. What other diseases are lurking in Gaza to create more suffering for the Palestinian people? It's time surely to bring this terrible conflict to an end. It has become now a battle of wills between Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, whose political survival rests on his winning the war, and Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader. Neither are going to compromise. They will fight to the bitter end, whether polio spreads or not, whether malnutrition spreads or not, or whether the whole Gaza Strip is destroyed. Amidst this Armageddon, good luck to the WHO doctors and nurses who will have the gargantuan challenge of preventing polio from spreading to all Palestinian children.

Kamala Harris smiley but a bit bland

The first interview on tv for Kamala Harris was not exactly a blockbuster. She didn't thump the table once. She didn't give any glacial looks at the CNN interviewer. And she didn't reveal what sort of president she would be if she wins in November. Perhaps at the ABC tv debate with Donald Trump on September 10 she will come out fighting and finger-pointing. But right now she has revealed little of herself and her polcies other than her promise to be a president for everyone. But, to be fair, every president has promised that, even Trump. In the next ten weeks it's going to be absolutely vital for her to lay out what she plans to do in her first four years in office if she really is going to defeat Trump. The polls are in her favour right now but that could change if voters doubt she has the strength to confront America's enemies.

The Hamas tunnels are still undermining Israel's attempt to defeat the organisation

The tunnels and underground bunkers under Gaza are so complex and so comprehensive that it seems impossible for the Israel Defence Forces to carry out what they have been ordered to do which is to destroy everything to do with Hamas. Israel knew all about the tunnels but even their intelligence services appear to have underestimated the size of the underground network. It's an extraordinary feat of engineering which must have taken years to complete. Entering every tunnel is dangerous for the IDF as they hunt for Hamas leaders and for the remaining 108 hostages. They've tried every way of finding and destroying the tunnels but a vast number are still in existence which is why the Hamas overall leader Yahya Sinwar is still alive and still in charge and still stopping Israel from achieving the victory it so desperately wants. As the IDF has discovered this week, when they enter tunnels they can suddenly come across a hostage. The latest discovery saved one more life but it demonstrated how carefully the IDF commandos have to be every time they go down a tunnel. They can't blast their way in because of the risk of killing a hostage. Perhaps one of these days, Israeli commandos will enter a bunker and find Sinwar sitting there. But I suspect he always keeps one step ahead of the IDF. It's an extraordinary cat and mouse game.

The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are long term

Despite all the ceasefire hopes to end the fighting in Gaza, nothing has come of themn; and for all the hopes that Putin might start to relent following the bold Ukrainian attacks across the border into western Russia, they have turned out to be unrealistic. Putin will carry on the war in Ukraine whatever challenges he might face. That's the way he is. And Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, is never going to give up until he has achieved his strategic objective which is the total destruction of Hamas. So all this diplomacy in the Middle East and military pressure by Ukraine is not actually having any impact. Today Israel has launched a massive raid in the West Bank against Palestinian extremists. It's never-ending. Putin just keeps on launching missiles into Ukraine, day after day, and his troops are beginning to make more headway in eastern Ukraine. Again, it's never ending. There is no expectation of any change in either Ukraine or Gaza for months and months, if not years and years. Very depressing.

Is Kamala Harris going to be the 47th president of the United States?

The latest polls for Kamala Harris are looking good, putting her several points ahead of Donald Trump. The 45th president who is desperate to be the 47th president must be seething. In fact, you can see he is seething. Ten weeks is a long time in politics, so the polls in her favour could dip or rise depending on what happens between now and November 5. But more could go wrong for Trump than for Harris. He might suddenly find himself being sent to jail for the business charge convictions, or at the very least given a suspended sentence or a hefty fine. Or, if there is going to be a TV debate between him and Harris next month, he could actually look Bidenesque with his mumbling and fumbling comments. He has a tendency to stray off the agreed track and if Harris comes out sounding like the prosecutor she formerly was, he could have a real hard time trying to get the better of her. I don't think he or his team can be looking forward to the debate because whatever else Harris says or does she is bound to win over the voters watching with her very amiable and smiley face. Trump looks such a grumpy old man these days and unless he rises to the occasion, Harris will come out top in the debate, and that will have an affect on her polling figures. By November, it's just possible she will be streets ahead of Trump and he knows it.

Putin is getting angry and frustrated by the war in Ukraine

Russia has hit Ukraine all over the country with about 200 missiles and drones, aiming particularly at energy plants. It's one of the biggest missile attacks since the war began two and half years ago and indicates that Vladimir Putin is getting increasingly angry. This is Putin stamping his foot loud and clear. Ever since 3,000 or so Ukrainian soldiers burst over the border into western Russia and started seizing territory and firing rockets at air bases as they went, the Russian leader appears to have been at a loss at what to do. His own troops have failed to dislodge the Ukrainian combat units who have set up a bridgehead for launching deeper attacks into Russia. So his only answer it seems was to order a massive missile strike to hurt Ukraine by way of retaliation.Kyiv's hope of forcing Putin to seek ways of ending the war by seizing Russian territory as a bargaining chip is not really working at the moment. Putin just hits back with more destructive power. He always wanted to reduce Ukraine to rubble and that's what he is still trying to do.

Israel goes for preemptive strike

Preemptive strike was a well-worn phrase that came up a lot during the George W Bush administration. The argument was, better to hit hard first before being attacked. It seemed to make sense, provided the intelligence warning of an attack on the way was good and accurate. But the concept of a preemptive strike was always going to be controversial. At what point do you launch a pre-strike? When the enemy is literally about to launch, when the enemy is loading up the wagons with rockets and shells? When the enemy is thought to be sitting round a table planning an attack? You see what I mean. Timing is everything, otherwise a country might as well launch a preemptive strike any day of the week as a precautionary measure on the grounds that it is better to strike first than be hit and then retaliate. Israel, in this case today, seems to have had very good intelligence of Hezbollah preparing to launch missiles and rockets at Israel. Satellite pics and other airbone intelligence-gathering systems will have sent back all the relevant images. So a preemptive strike was launched in order to remove or at least limit the imminent attack across the border. Hezbollah effectively proved Israel's point by launching hundreds of rockets into Israel, most of which were shot down. Israel's justification for the premmptive attack on Hezbollah positions was that it would forestall a longer and more dangerous war. Again, the argument appears to be reasonably based because after its huge launch of rockets, Hezbollah announced that would be an end of it, for the moment at least. Other attack phases are anticipated, if not promised. But Hezbollah is now on notice: if they try to carry out another series of rocket launches, Israel will get in first. Preemptive strikes are now part of the Middle East lexicon.