Tuesday, 14 April 2026

Nuclear impasse between the US and Iran

It has come down to Iran's nuclear programme. All the other objectives declared by Donald Trump have either been sort of achieved or are in the process of being achieved. The US Epic Fury attacks, backed by Israel, have destroyed a good proportion of Iran's ballistic missile launchers and missiles, and missile-production plants, air defence systems, most of the navy and air force and command and control infrastructure. But the nukes question is unresolved, although of course the US and Israel together have set back the enriched-uranium programme by at least a year if not more after persistent strikes on the main nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz. But the 440 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium is still in Tehran's hands, albeit buried under the targeted plants. Trump is still talking about sending in special operations troops to grab this near-bomb-grade material, but right now he is hoping Tehran will just hand it over. That seems highly unlikely. The talks in Islambad broke down because of this issue and because of US demands that all uranium-enrichment be suspended for 20 years. Iran has come back with "ok, but only for five years". Trump will mever agree to that. But I can see a situation in which a compromise is made and Iran agrees to suspend most of its enrichment for 15 years. If that happens, then it will be exacty the same deal reached by Obama in 2015 through diplomatic rather than military force means. Surely Trump could not go with that! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

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