Trump gives the go ahead for a naval blockade of Iranian ports

Donald Trump has now announced he WILL launch a navl blockade of all Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday aAfter noting the suggestion of a blockade by two of his favourite military analysts, General Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the US Army, and Rebecca Grant of the Lexington Institute think-tank, Trump posted on Truth Social that it would “begin shortly”. Following the failure of the talks in Islamabad to find a solution to end the war, the notion of a blockade to outsmart the IRGC has already begun to take shape. On Saturday, two American guided-missile destroyers, USS Frank E Petersen and USS Michael Murphy, briefly entered the Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf of Oman to begin “setting conditions for clearing mines,” US Central Command said. The short, uninhibited excursion into the Gulf waterway was not a precursor to the imminent arrival of a blockading convoy of warships. But it underlined the threats that will confront the US Navy if Trump has given the go-ahead for such an operation. It’s not just mines, some of which, it is feared, have been dropped indiscriminately, but the IRGC’s surviving stocks of suicide airborne drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and sea drones packed with explosives, all of which could target oil tankers and other commercial ships as well as US Navy vessels protecting them. “Convoy operations will entail having active optical and electronic surveillance overhead, with an immediate response capability, covering potential mobile launcher firing points along at least 250 miles of Iranian coastline and its hinterland, from Abu Musa in the West to Jask in the East.,” said the Maritime Executive, the shipping industry’s leading information source. Such a challenge would require a heavy concentration of firepower in the Gulf waterway for months on end, a commitment which would have repercussions for Central Command’s main Epic Fury operation against Iran which, if Trump orders a second phase of bombing, could include the seizure of Kharg Island, location of 90 per cent of stored and exportable Iranian oil. Could the US mount a full naval blockade at the same time as relaunching Epic Fury? Both Jack Keane and Rebecca Grant indicated it was feasible and necessary. The current US naval presence consists of around 26 warships and submarines, including two aircraft carriers, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford, now returned after repairs in Croatia following a fire on board, and 16 guided-missile destroyers. A third carrier, USS George HW Bush, is on the way from jts home port in Norfolk, Virginia. However, there is a serious shortage of US minesweeping vessels in the region. Four left the Gulf before the war started. Two are currently in Malaysia for repair and modernisation. Will Trump call on his much-maligned Nato partners to provide mine-clearance capabilities and tanker escorts? During his recent trip to the Gulf region, Sir Keir Starmer emphasised the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But a US naval blockade would likely be defined by the prime minister’s lawyers as an act of war. He has made a point of pledging not to involve the UK in Trump’s war. President Macron of France has already said French warships would not escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz while the war was on. Tne former top Pentagon official warned that the idea of a naval blockade was premature because of the continuing threat posed by IRGC coastal missiles and drones. “I think we are still several weeks away from degrading the Iranian capabilities sufficiently and bringing in our limited mine counter measure vessels,” said Eric Edelman who was the Pentagon’s defence policy chief for four years in President George W Bush’s administration. “The seizure of Kharg Island could be a part of efforts to clear the Strait since it would provide a chokehold on Iran's export capabilities and give the US a bargaining chip to trade with the Iranians,” he said. About 3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division and two marine expeditionary units, 4,400-strong, as well as hundreds of special operations troops are in the region, ready for a land-grab operation. “A separate matter would be to blockade and presumably seize Iranian ghost fleet tankers coming out of the Strait. That is something I think the US Navy could do but the administration would have to weigh the disruptions that might cause to the international oil market and the fact that much of that oil is headed to China where Trump is supposed to be meeting Xi Jinping in May,” Edelman said. This raises a potential challenging scenario. What if China were to send its own warships to protect oil tankers bound for Chinese ports? Would the US Navy be under orders to let them through the blockade? “The US Navy could have seized the handful of tankers that have left the Strait over the past few weeks but it appears the administration was not willing to do so then, perhaps they are willing now,” Edelman said. Naval blockades have a mixed history. Trump has leapt at the idea for the Gulf because of the perceived success of the operation against Venezuela. An armada of US warships blocked oil tankers from leaving Venezuelan ports, but the naval siege was not leak-proof., and there was no war underway. To guarantee safe passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz and stop Iranian oil tankers from getting through, the US Navy will have an embittered enemy across the other side of the chokepoint. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.