Prepare for Epic Fury Part II

It could be the shortest negotiations in history. The United States and Iran, with their respective peace plans, are so far apart it is difficult to imagine how their differences can ever be squared. A two-week ceasefire, which has already been broken, brought relief after five weeks of war and steadied the oil and stock markets. But the agreed ceasefire is looking fragile, as US Vice President JD Vance admitted. If there is any hope of a permanent deal, both Washington and Tehran are going to have make significant concessions. Judging by the 15-point plan presented by President Trump and the ten-point counter proposal delivered by the Iranian regime, neither side has even hinted at compromise. Trump has stated that Iran’s ten points might form the basis of a workable settlement. But only last week he effectively dismissed the Iranian demands, saying the package of peace proposals was “not good enough”. It’s not hard to see why. Tehran wants an acceptance of Iran’s nuclear-enrichment programme, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases in the region, full reparation for the billions of dollars of damage caused by the five weeks of US and Israeli bombing, Iranian military control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of all sanctions. In his 15-pointer, Trump demands an end to all uranium-enrichment, including for civilian purposes, the handover of the 440.9 kilos of uranium enriched to 60 per cent grade (30 per cent away from fissile fuel for a nuclear bomb), the decommissioning of nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz, and a halt to Tehran’s arming of proxy militia forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Key to both peace-settlement packages is the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump wanting free and safe passage for all ships through the choke point, and Tehran insisting on having a supervisory role and, furthermore, introducing tolls for every vessel to the tune of at least $1 million-a-go. The cash flow, potentially up to $100 million a day would be used to cover the costs of rebuilding everything demolished in the war., although half the toll money would go to Oman, sitting on the other side of the channel. If Trump were to accept this toll system, it would undercut one of the principle reasons why he decided to go to war with Iran. Could he even consider allowing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to hold sway over the Strait? What would shipping companies, let alone insurance brokers covering the trips down the waterway, think of such an arrangement? Pakistan which will mediate the first round of negotiations in Islamabad on Friday, has put forward its own five-point plan, and its wording for the Strait of Hormuz matches Trump’s, not Tehran’s vision for shipping in the Gulf waterway: It calls for the restoration of “normal passage through the Strait as soon as possible”. In other words, no IRGC checkpoints and no tolls. Most of Iran’s ten points cannot be acceptable to a US administration which went to war in order to remove for ever the possibility of the cleric-run regime possessing nuclear weapons and to bring about regime-change through a combination of mass bomb strikes and leadership assassinations. Trump claims he has achieved both these objectives: the 60-per-cent enriched uranium is buried beneath the rubble caused by last June’s bombing and the five-week war’s retargeting of nuclear sites; and the regime is not the same as it was on February 28 when Operation Epic Fury began. However, Iran is effectively beginning the peace negotiations by ignoring the realities of what Trump has achieved in the last five weeks with the bombing campaign. If Iran maintains this position in Islamabad, it is difficult to see how the two sides can even agree a framework for a peace deal, let alone get down to actual negotiations. It took two years for President Obama and a team of brilliant nuclear experts led by US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz to construct a deal under which Iran agreed to limit its uranium-enrichment to only 3.67 per cent and reduce its stockpile by 98 per cent. The 2015 deal was signed by Iran, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union. Trump, on the other hand, is a broad-brush negotiator, not a detail man. He is not sending nuclear experts to Islamabad. He has given the job to Vance. along with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. This means he will expect Iran to cave in to his demands, particularly on its uranium-enrichment programme. If he doesn’t get what he wants, Trump will return to Operation Epic Fury Part Two. Pete Hegseth, the Defence (War) Secretary, has already indicated the president night still authorise sending invasion troops into Iran to dig out the highly-enriched uranium. So, there is little room for optimism that the ceasefire will survive beyond two weeks. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.