Monday, 17 February 2025
The Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia are just the beginning
There is no likelihood of a fully-formed peace settlement to end the war in Ukraine emerging at the first meeting of Americans and Russians in Saudi Arabia tomorrow (Tues). It's more like a reunion party for top US officials and top Kremlin officials to talk about old times when the two countries were not at permanent loggerheads. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, has been around long enough to start this new process very slowly and suspiciously. He will have to go back to Putin and give him some good news, so there will be no caving in to the Trump team demands. Each side will lay out their hopes for a deal but there won't be any signatures and stamps of approval. Both sides will be pushing their luck and seeing what comes of it. So, in a sense, Ukraine will not be missing out that much. A Ukrainian delegation will surely be more involved in the detail at some later stage, although one can understand Zelensky's anger and frutration. As for the Europeans, their time will come, too. All this rushing to Paris in panic mode will be viewed in the White House as the reason why Trump didn't want them all putting in their pennorth in Saudi Arabia. It would be so much blaa blaa blaa. On the other hand, if the Paris emergency summit gets the Europeans to spend more money on defence and preparing for a war with Russia without the US, then Trump will see that as a result. I would say it's all going Trump's way right now.
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