Thursday, 13 February 2025
How can Putin not win the war in Ukraine?
With Donald Trump in full swing to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, it's difficult to see how the end result can be anything but good news for Putin and very bad news for Zelensky. The Ukrainian armed forces can't drive the Russian army out of eastern Ukraine and Crimea. So "peace" negotiations aren't going to be able to do it because Putin will just refuse to let go of any of the territory his forces have seized and occupied. So, he will keep the near-20 per cent of the Ukrainian sovereign territory which includes Crimea. What could Trump ever say or do to Putin to force him to reduce these territorial gains to, say, 15 per cent or ten per cent? It's not going to happen. That means the negotiators on the US side (with or without their Ukrainian counterparts) will have to start on the basis that the 20 per cent stays under Russian occupation and control and, I guess, ownership. So, Zelensky has lost already. All that suffering and death and destruction and the enemy gets to keep everything. Then there's the matter of the future security of Ukraine. Trump says Nato membership is out. Pete Hegseth, his defence secretary, says Nato membership is off the table. So that's gone, too. What is left for Zelensky to see even the tiniest of silver linings in a future peace settlement? A huge peacekeeping force manned by European armies to keep Putin at bay? It's never going to happen. Europe can't afford it and none of the countries have the troops or the defence budgets to sustain a massive peacekeeping force for years and years in Ukraine. Trump wants Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, to head the negotiations in Saudi Arabia (why in Saudi Arabia?) but what will Rubio have up his sleeve to offer Zelensky to lessen the blow of humiliation and defeat? Nothing. There is nothing. The only thing he might get is a promise to appeal to countries around the world to send cash to help repair all the damage caused by Putin's rockets, missiles and bombs. But no guarantees. After all, Gaza has got to be rebuilt, too. Who will get preference?
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