Tuesday, 11 February 2025
A huge Europe-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine? Who's kidding?
There's growing talk about a peacekeeping force led by Europe going into Ukraine if Donald Trump manages to broker a peace deal to end the war. Trump has spoken on the phone to Putin and I guess the subject must have come up. There are two things: first, I can't see Putin ever agreeing to it, and, second, where on earth is this huge force going to come from? The Brits seem to think they could provide a division. That's 15,000 troops. This is pie in the sky. The British Army is now so small it can barely put up a division for a full-scale war. So, 15,000 for a peacekeeping mission? I seriously doubt that's feasible. The talk is about sending at least 150,000 European troops to peacekeep and act as a deterrent to Russian aggression post-ceasefire. I just don't see this happening. Germany is reluctant, Poland is not happy, no one, apart from the Brits, seems enamoured. Of course, the main argument is, yes, ok but we need the Americans to back it with hefty airpower, intelligence, logistics and probably some infantry, too. But Trump wants to get shot of Ukraine and leave it to Europe, so I doubt he will be willing to spend a lot of money on supporting the poor Europeans to carry out a peacekeeping mission. But even if, by some miracle, the Europeans managed to drum up 150,000 troops, Putin would never go along with it. He didn't invade Ukraine to see a European-led army occupying the land he wants for himself. It's a non-starter. Trump will have to think of a different way of deterring Russia from further aggression against Ukraine if there is to be a ceasefire.
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