Could Britain play a role in Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine?

Britain has the opportunity to become a master in tightrope diplomacy between Donald Trump and an increasingly alarmed Europe after the 47th president’s blitz of foreign policy announcements. To say that European leaders have been hyperventilating over the dramatic chess move made by Trump in his 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin is to put it mildly. Trump has been accused of appeasement a la Neville Chamberlain and his paper of peace following the US president’s seeming surrender to Putin’s two key demands to end the war in Ukraine: permanent retention of ground seized and no future membership of Nato for his suffering neighbour. Horrified leaders and politicians in Europe have condemned Trump for giving away any leverage he might have had in starting negotiations with Putin. The reaction from Moscow – all smiles and back-slapping – only underlined the European view that the new leader of the western world had miss-stepped and blundered his way into a negotiating sit-down with the bones of a deal already settled without Kyiv’s say-so. However, there are three points worth making: First, Trump has effectively been promising to do what he has just done for so long that every government in Europe should have been prepared; second, after Trump‘s 2017-2021 presidency, the world knew everything about Trump’s leadership style and shock-and-awe foreign policy tactics (his wooing of Kim Jung Un of North Korea); and, third, Trump is famous for his wild opening gambits. In the case of Ukraine, his ultimate objective is to end the death and destruction as swiftly as possible and leave the Europeans to provide the boots on the ground if a peacekeeping force is ever approved and implemented. This is where the UK comes in, holding a unique position. We are longer a member of the European Union, regarded by Trump more as a rival than an ally, and have a partnership with the US which no other country in the world shares: we buy (actually lease) Trident nuclear missiles from the US Navy’s base in King’s Bay, Georgia, guaranteeing Britain’s permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council. The Trump declaration about brokering peace in Ukraine via a big power session hosted by Saudi Arabia has all the hallmarks of the US president’s negotiating style. He has already chosen his players at the table who will include Marco Rubio, secretary of state, John Ratcliffe, CIA director, and perhaps surprisingly, Steve Witkoff, his special Middle East envoy, fresh from his starring, behind-the-scenes manipulating to reach the Gaza ceasefire deal. Whether Europe will be represented at the Saudi summit is still up in the air, which has caused an outburst of anger and astonishment throughout Europe. The Europeans, after all, have supplied $52 billion in arms to help Ukraine fight off the Russians (compared with $145 billion by the US). Although there has been some rowing back from the initial image created of an exclusive Trump team versus Putin team in Saudi Arabia, the US president has made it clear he believes he is the only realistic dealmaker. As many commentators have already pointed out, this is the new reality of world politics. However, Britain can provide a calming influence and should seize the chance to act as the main bridge between Washington and Europe, to ensure that the European voice is heard, especially if the UK is asked to lead some sort of security/peacekeeping force in Ukraine. John Healey, the UK defence secretary, seems to be a politician with common sense, and although he has joined the cries for Ukraine and Europe to be represented in the negotiations, he could be the one to take on an influential role in enveloping Europe into whatever Trump and Putin come up with. He has already donned the responsibility of chairman of the Ukraine defence contact group of 50 nations supporting Kyiv. It was founded and previously led by Lloyd Austin, President Biden’s defence secretary. Britain has experience of tightrope diplomacy, often in the past acting as intermediary between Washington and European capitals, principally because of its historic nuclear and intelligence-sharing relationship. While Trump blasts his way through negotiating obstacles, Britain could be in a position to provide measured contributions. Not least of which would be to inject a little realism into the concept of a large (150,000 troops?) peacekeeping force in Ukraine. There has been talk of Britain supplying a division of 15,000. With a British Army of fewer than 75,000 regular soldiers, that would seem to be somewhat far-fetched.