Thursday, 9 January 2025

Trump's warning to Hamas over Israeli hostages

President-elect Donald Trump has warned that "all hell will let lose" if Hamas fails to release all the remaining hostages in Gaza by the time he takes up office on January 20. It has to be said that all hell has already been let lose in Gaza, with thousands of Palestinian civilians killed in Israel in airstrikes and large chunks of urban areas totally or partially destroyed. But Trump has an even greater hell in mind for Hamas in Gaza apparently. It's difficult to see what it could be, apart from the US joining the Israelis in bombing everything suspected of being linked to or associated with Hamas. But what Trump's warning is really about is to apply as much pressure on Hamas as possible to release the hostages in the next two weeks. Hamas has been largely eliminated after relentless bombing and shelling and droning by the Israel Defence Forces ever since Hamas invaded Israel's southern border and killed 1,200 people and kidnapped around 250 on October 7th, 2023. Will the arrival of Trump in the White House and the exit of Joe Biden make any difference to Hamas? One would like to compare the hostage-release drama in Gaza today to the hostage-release drama in Iran in 1981. On the same day Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as president, the 53 American diplomats and other staff who had been held prisoner by armed revolutionaries at the US embassy in Tehran for 444 days were freed. After a disastrous attempt by President Jimmy Carter to have them released by special forces in a mission that ended fatally in a sandstorm in the desert in Iran on April 24, 1980, it looked as if the arrival of strongman Reagan as president persuaded the ayatollahs in Tehran to give in and hand over the prisoners. But it wasn't the case. Carter and his diplomatic team had negotiated a deal through the good offices of the Algerian government. Under the Algiers agreement, Iran had fozen assets released and some sanctions lifted in exchange for the hostage release. Apparently, a bit of cunning persuasion by one of Reagan's envoys during the transition period succeeded in getting the release of the hostages delayed until Reagan had been inaugurated. Perhaps this is what will happen with the Gaza hostages. Biden and his team of negotiators will get the deal with Hamas but no Israeli hostages will be freed until after Trump takes over. Thus, history will repeat itself. Trump of course will take the plaudits because he will say that his "all hell will let loose" warning was taken seriously by Hamas.

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