Sunday, 12 January 2025

Could the war in Gaza be coming to an end?

So many hopes of a hostage-release and ceasefire over the last few months but all came to nothing. Is it different now? Are all the political strings coming together to bring this terrible war to an end? A week to go before Donald Trump becomes president. A last week for Antony Blinken, the outgoing secretary of state, to finally push for a deal in Qatar. Perhaps a realisation by Hamas that this is the best time to do a hostage deal before Trump arrives. All these possibilities are in the wind and there may be a satisfactory outcome. But it is probably too optimistic to hope that the war itself will come to a complete stop. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, thinks there is still work to do to eliminate Hamas once and for ever. Even though the Israelis say they have killed 17,000 Hamas fighters, that means maybe the same number again are still alive and fighting. Will Netanyahu be satisfied with that? The total figure of dead in Gaza is said to be 46,000 but that will include the 17,000 dead militants. The rest are Palestinian civilians, men, women and children. This is a terrible slaughter of innocent people and has to end. The heads of Mossad and Shin Bet, Israel's internal security service, are now in Qatar where they will negotiate indrectly with Hamas. They will never actually meet face to face but use Qatari middlemen to do the exchanges. It's a weird system but it has worked in the past in other highly sensitive negotiations. For Blinken, it's his last chance of returning to Washington with a deal that could see the release of 30 or 40 hostages and a ceasefire, although probably only lasting a week or so. Then what? Then it will be in the hands of the new Trump administration to get the remaining hostages released and try to bring a final end to the war.

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