Monday 3 June 2024

Putin is in warning mood

So now one of Putin's lackey's has given a warning to the US that if Ukraine uses American weapons to hit Russia there will be fatal consequences. Sergei Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister, seemed to be suggesting that if a single America-supplied rocket or missile ventured over the Russian border and hit a military target, there could be a counter-strike against a Nato country in the region. If that were to happen what would President Biden do? If a Russian strike killed people in a Nato country, theoretically there should be no alternative but a Nato response against Russia. But I seriously doubt it would happen. As it is, Biden is so desperate to avoid a catasrophic escalation in the war bringing Russia against Nato that he has given the most tentative of approvals for Ukraine's use of US long-range weapons to strike at over-the-border sites. It is by no means a carte blanche for Kyiv to strike where and when it pleases. He has quietly given the green light for Ukraine to use US weapons inside Russia but only as counter-strikes on military sites from where attacks had been lanched on the city of Kharkiv where all the major fighting is currently being concentrated. So, very limited indeed. This is in stark contrast to the UK government whch appears to have given Kyiv full permission to fire UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles at any targets it wants, whether inside Ukraine or inside Russia. It is extraordnary that two such close allies should have such different approaches towards Ukraine. Storm Shadows have been launched against targets in Crimea which, of course, following its annexing by the Russian military in 2014, is seen by Moscow as sovereign Russian territory. No "fatal consequences" followed these attacks. So perhaps the pronouncement by the Russian deputy foreign minister is all the usual bluster. But it has to be said, Putin at some point might just feel the US and the rest of Nato have crossed the line. We don't know what "fatal consequences" might mean under such circumstances but Biden will try his best to avoid this sort of scenario I am sure.

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