Friday 4 August 2023

Will DeSantis et al improve their chances now?

Now that Donald Trump is facing hugely serious charges and the threat of conviction and prison, will this help or hinder the chances of his Republican rivals winning the nomination in July next year? Right now, the answer is clear. Trump is way ahead and will remain way ahead for the forseeable future. But there could come a time over the next six to nine months when his principal rivals, such as Ron DeSantis, will have to make a big decision. Do they go all out and say Trump should stand down and leave the race to others while he fights for a life outside a prison cell? This will take courage. Or to put it another way, a move such as this could lead to political suicide. But the Republican party as a whole will also have to make this decision. How long do they continue to back Trump? Are there people with courage and vision in the party who will say, enough is enough, it's time to move on from Trump and give their backing to another candidate? At this time I doubt there is anyone around, apart from the tiny minority of Trump critics in the Republican party, who would dare to come out in public and make a statement of this kind. Why? Because they know that there would be a howl of derision from the millions of Trump devotees around the country. But if Trump is convicted, what then? Will it be too late for the bravehearts to step forward? This is the extraordinary state of affairs for the Republicans. They are all in limbo, waiting to see what happens. How any of them can continue to back Trump is one of the great mysteries of the universe. But they do, either out of a mindless loyalty to him, or out of cowardice or out of total absence of common sense. So the party will probably stagger on behind the Trump bandwagon because he still represents the best hope they have to oust Biden from the White House.

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