Monday 14 August 2023

What if Trump's legal problems prevent him from standing?

Polling figures and analysis published in The Hill paint a fascinating scenario. What if Trump becomes so embroiled in fighting the increasing number of indictments - with more expected soon arising from the allegation that he tried to overturn the Georgia vote in 2020 - he is prevented in some way or other from continuing to stand as a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination? If that were to happen, it would be a disaster for the Republicans because none of the other candidates could just step in and take his place. None of them have anywhere near his popularity and following. So Republican voters would be so disillusioned they might not bother to turn out and vote. Joe Biden would walk it. I think this is absolutely correct. Why on earth would Trump's supporters switch their loyalties to, say, Ron DeSantis or Mike Pence or Nikki Haley? They wouldn't do that. They would say it's Trump or nobody. So for the Republican party it would be the worst possible outcome. The presidency would be handed to Biden on a plate. A lot of senior Republican politicians are quietly appalled at the prospect of having Trump back in the White House, but they would rather have Trump than another four years of Biden. So it's a total catch-22 situation. And Trump's devoted followers? Of course they won't vote for DeSantis instead even though at one point he was looked on as a younger Trump. A sort of mini-Trump. But not any more. So, instead, Trump's fans would stay at home and refuse to vote for anyone. Trump himself of course has said he will carry on campaigning for the White House irrespective of what the Justice Department and Jack Smith, special counsel, do to try and convict him of serious charges. But there could come a point where Trump may have to focus all his efforts on fighting the charges and staying out of jail. Right now I can't see that happening but you just never know.

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