The war in Ukraine is changing dramatically

Much of the focus in the past four months has been on Ukraine's much-vaunted counter-offensive aimed at driving the Russians out of occupied areas in the south and east. The progress has been less than dramatic. A village here, a few square miles of territory there. But nothing so significant that you could say the operation is a wild success. But in the meantime Ukraine's special forces have been engaged in a huge escalation of attacks against Russia itself and inside Crimea. The war is getting closer and closer to the Russian people. Ammunition dumps have been blown up, factories churning out equipment for the war have been attacked, individual military commanders have been targeted and apartment blocks on the outskirts of Moscow have been hit by drones. The Russian people must surely now have got the message that their "enemy" is operating within their communities. Their lives are being targeted. At what point will Russians begin to blame their leader for the disruption to their lives? Or will they continue to swallow the Kremlin propaganda and believe that Ukraine and its western partners are out to destroy Russia? Putin is counting on deceiving the Russian population, so that all their anger is focused on Nato and Kyiv. This ploy has worked well since the invasion of Ukraine began but can all Russians be so gullible? Do they not have minds of their own? Can they not see that by invading another country, Putin is to blame for every act of violence that has occurred within the boundaries of Russia? Whether the counter-offensive makes a big breakthrough or not, I see the war switching in emphasis away from the hard grind of attritional warfare towards an intensification of attacks inside Russia and Crimea. There will come a boiling point, both for Ukraine and for Putin.