Saturday 19 August 2023

Does the Cuban missile crisis offer any ideas for ending the war in Ukraine?

The world nearly came to an end in 1962 when Krushchev tried to ship nuclear warheads into Cuba to fit onto missiles already in place. Reading "Lessons" by Ian McEwan, his brilliant new novel whose main character experiences the fear of being vapourised by a Soviet nuclear attack as a pupil in boarding school during those climactic weeks reminded me of my similar fears as a child looking out of the window waiting for something to happen. But there was no nuclear annihilation. The world was saved by brinkmanship diplomacy and ultimately by a deal which persuaded Krushchev to call back his ships with the nuclear warheads. The missile crisis was over. The deal of course was that if Krushchev removed the missiles from Cuba, President John F Kennedy would agree to dismantle the intermediate-range nuclear missiles installed in Turkey aimed at the Soviet Union. A world-saving quid pro quo. There nust surely be a similar world-saving quid pro quo to end the war in Ukraine and return the planet to some form of normality. The war cannot, must not, go on and on, killing more and more people, with every day threatening a terrible escalation and nuclear terror back on the schedule. Most wars end in negotiation and compromise. Not the Iraq war of course. That ended in a very prematurely-called victory which was then replaced with years of insurgency and the creation of the Islamic State (Isis). The trick, like in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, will be to find the formula which will be acceptable to Moscow, Kyiv and Washington (and possibly Beijing).

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