Sunday 28 August 2022

What if the war in Ukraine is still going on in 2024?

The German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock thinks the war in Ukraine could go on for years. She is probably right but how depressing is that? It could mean that when the US presidential election campaigns get going, the war will be an issue, especially of course if it is still having a disastrous impact on the cost of living for everyone. Perhaps this is Putin's main objective, to steadily undermine and destroy the West's way of life. He won't succeed but if the war does look set to continue for three, four or five more years, the next US president, whether it be a reelected Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, stepping in to replace an exhausted president, or a Republican firebrand - Donald Trump (God help us), Rick DeSantis or whoever - will surely have to consider new action to try and stop the war or intervene to defeat Putin? No one, least of all the poor Ukrainians, will want this war to go on for years. One hope is that Putin by 2024 could be in serious political trouble if he fails to achieve the glory he promised the Russian people. There are already signs of disgruntlement in Moscow among senior military and intelligence officials. By 2024 it could have grown into a nationwide rebellion. It's a long time to wait but if the German foreign minister's dire prediction is right, with any luck it will be Putin who suffers the most.

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