Monday 8 August 2022

Who will dare take on Trump from the Republican party?

Some time between now and November, Donald Trump will declare he intends to stand for reelection as president of the United States. I don't think there is any doubt he will stand, especially if Joe Biden confirms he wants a second term. Trump believes he beat Biden in 2020 and sure as hell believes he can beat him in 2024. So unless, and this is a huge unless, the Justice Department decides on all the evidence that has emerged over the last few months that Trump should be charged with a criminal offence arising from the January 6 attack on the Capitol - it seems unlikely - the former president will announce before adoring crowds that he is the man to push Biden out of the White House. In that case who among the many would-be presidents in the Republican party is going to dare to stand against him? Ron DeSantis, standing at the moment for reelection as governor of Florida, Mike Pence, former vice president, Nikki Haley, ex-ambassador to the United Nations and all the other hopefuls such as Mike Pompeo, former CIA director and secretary of state, and Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas? Will they have the temerity to fight a campaign against their former leader? There surely has to be a good chance that after Trump declares he wants the job again, the others will fall by the way side, with the possible exception of Mike Pence who is no longer a member of the Donald Trump fan club. But he won't beat Trump that's for sure. DeSantis is unquestionably the strongest of the "other" candidates but he could well stick with being governor of Florida and go for the Big Job in 2028. None of this gives any absolute certainty for Trump that he will win the nomination or that he will beat Biden. And it's this uncertainty which just might make Trump have second thoughts. But I doubt it. The only thing that is going to stop Trump now is if the Justice Department decides to prosecute him. Then the fireworks would really fly.

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