Wednesday 30 June 2021

Could Afghanistan be in a civil war by September?

Hardly anyone is predicting that once the US and coalition troops leave Afghanistan in the next few weeks, the country will suddenly leap towards peace. It will be the opoosite. Even the normally cautious General Scott Miller, US commander in Afghanistan, is warning of a possible civil war as rival tribes fight it out for supremacy. And unless the Afghan security forces with all the training and equipment and money they have received over the last two decades can find it in their heart to defend the country from the Taliban and the many militias that have sprung up, then Afghanistan is surely doomed to more bloodshed and slaughter. Miller is worried and if he is worried everyone hoping for stability and democratic government in Afghanistan should also be worried. Biden must be worried but he has made the decision to end America's involvement in the war and he is going to stick to it. He has little alternative. The US either stays in or gets out of Afghanistan, there's no middle way, and after 20 years it's definitely time to leave. Trump thought so and Biden agreed. But what if General Miller is right and mayhem follows the departure of the last US soldier? Does the West just let them get on with it? The Pentagn's plan to keep on training the Afghan security forces but in some other country is pretty daft. It will be very expensive and won't add anything that has not already been tried and tested since the advise and training programme took over from the combat mission in 2014. Trump ordered all US troops out of Somalia but agreed to let the Pentagon, or more specifically Africa Command, continue with training Somalian forces out of the country, like in Kenya. But it hasn't worked well and now the Pentagon is talking about sending US troops back into Somalia, if Biden approves. That should be a lesson for the Pentagon. Continuing to train Afghan troops somewhere in central Asia isn't going to be effective. So if Miller is right and the bad boys launch into a mighty offensive to take Kabul, there is not a lot the US can do about it, except keep enough troops in the country to protect the huge embassy complex and the 1,000 or so diplomats and civilian staff who work there. There will be no Saigon moment hopefully, with US diplomats scambling onto helicopters to escape the capital. But the omens are looking increasingly bad.

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