Sunday 13 June 2021

Biden's belt-and-road plan

Joe Biden in sunny Cornwall at the G7 summit is keen to start competing with China's belt-and-road programme which has flooded Asia, Africa and even parts of Europe with investment and construction and development as part of a broad all-embracing strategy to build its mighty world trade business and become the most influential nation on the planet. The trouble is Beijing has been at it for decades while the rest of the world watched in amazement. It was the old Silk Road all over again. But no one in the West seemed to have the nouse or leadership or vision to compete with China and stall the Chinese from appearing in their hard hats in every region of the world building roads, railways, airports, ports etc. Now it's all too late. Biden has woken up to the potential future threat. It's not just about trade for China, it's about building a superpower presence, helping one country to build roads in return for having a naval base for visiting PLA warships, and helping another country to develop a port in return for an airbase. China has always been good at strategy, the West not so much. But I doubt somehow the G7 will be able to agree unanimously to start a belt-and-road strategy to rival what China has aready achieved. China decides to do something and gets on with it relentlessly. The US needs the support of too many other countries to do the same. The European leaders, for example, wanted a big trade agreement with Beijing and although that's on hold for the moment, leaders such as Chancellor Merkel of Germany are keen to push ahead with deals with China. That would effectively undermine Biden's new idea which would be seen by Beijing as a deliberate attempt to build a new Cold War-style trade bloc against China. So for the G7 suddenly to launch a Marshall plan for the world to counter China, the European Union would have to rethink their whole trade strategy. I doubt it will happen. There is no question that the other G7 leaders have welcomed Biden into their fold and are happy they no longer need to deal wth Donald Trump. But grand strategies from the White House make them feel nervous. I'm sure the final communique from Cornwall will be full of bright and positive language. But a western-stye belt-and-road scheme to rival Beijing? I think that's unlikely.

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