Friday 16 April 2021

The future world looks bleak

I've reread the Global Trends report published this week by the US intelligence services - there are 18 of them now with the additional agency set up by the new Space Command - and it makes dire reading. The trends are looking alarming and seemingly unpreventable, such as the unfreezing of the Arctic, the rise and rise of China, the desperation of migration, the volatility of many of the world's governments, the increasing disillusion of people who feel they are neglected and forgotten and the continuing threat posed by jihadists everywhere. If ever governments need to work together to help the planet it's now and over the next decade. But there is no real sign of a cooperative spirit amongst the major powers. China wants to be the dominant power, militarily, ecnomically and culturally, and cares not a jot for anyone else, Russia seems to be getting more dangerous every week, Britain has left the European Union and thus has no voice left worth listening to, let alone being listened to, Germany is coming to the end of the Angela Merkel era and handing over to a non-entity, France has gone mad under Macron, the United States is desperately trying to regain some of its reputation in the world after being tarnished by the Trump administration, war between Israel and Iran is less and less theoreticaL, and there is no voice of wisdom out there to calm things down. I don't think the Pope, as wise and thoughtful as he is, is the man to bring the world to its senses and Antonio Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations, is a good man but no one listens to the UN anymore. There are good people around who could and should have influence to help make the world a better and safer place. Perhaps John Kerry, Biden's climate czar who has such huge experience as a travelling diplomat and is respected, even in Beijing. But one man won't save the planet from a rapidly changing climate. The US intelligence services' Global Trends report which looks ahead to 2040 was possibly the most pessimistic ever written but unfortunately was also realistic. In 2008, the Global Trends report warned that a worldwide pandemic originating in East Asia was likely, and look what happened with that prediction. Did the world listen, was the world prepared? It's difficult to raise a smile.

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