Tuesday 20 April 2021

Russian build-up on Ukraine border now at critical stage

By the EU's estimation there are about 150,000 Russian troops now on the border with eastern Ukraine and in the annexed Crimean peninsula. That's a pincer movement in the making. Could Vladimir Putin seriously be considering full-scale invasion? The Pentagon has been wary of putting numbers on the troops on the border, although I'm not quite sure why, but officials have been expressing concern for some time. Does that mean that the US and Nato have a plan all set to act or react if Russia does invade Ukraine? Whatever is going on in the top levels of the Pentagon and in Putin's mind in the Kremlin, we seem to have reached a critical point. With so many troops, tanks and armoured vehicles at his disposal it's as if Putin is just wating for an excuse to send them over the border. Any incident in eastern Ukraine which he can claim has put the lives of Russian nationals there at risk and he will give the order. As the director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant-General Scott Berrier, told the Senate intelligence committee during a hearing on world threats: "They (the Russians) have placed themselves in a posture where it has given them options." That's a statement riddled with menacing possibilities. Also, the US ambassador to Russia has mysteriously returned to Washington, on the recommendation of Sergey Lavrov, the lugubrious Russian foreign minister which also sounds faintly sinister. Could this be the week when Putin finally makes up his mind whether to order his troops home after completing their "training exercise" or to give the order to invade? I still think it's more bluster than a genuine invasion intention, especially with the prospect of getting a summit with Joe Biden in the near future. Surely he won't want to spoil that possibility, unless he has given up on the US and no longer cares or worries about what Washington might do. The US has enforced so many sanctions against individuals and Russian companies that a few more could be met with a shrug of the shoulders. As I have written before, Putin might come to his senses only if his own wealth assets are targeted. The US hasn't dared to do that yet. But an invasion of Ukraine, for whatever excuse, might just tip the balance. Putin's millions frozen or sequestered? That really would make Putin sit up and take notice.

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