Thursday 1 April 2021

How can Iran be persuaded to deal with Biden?

Joe Biden has enough on his plate with the pandemic, the vaccination programme, the rising immigration problem at the Mexico border, the approaching deadline on the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and his dog biting people in the White House. But somehow Iran has got to get sorted. Imminent presidential elections in Iran means there's a very real deadline to meet to persuade the current regime in Tehran to reopen negotiations/discussions on the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran is not talking to the Biden administration at the moment but various offers have emerged from the current Iranian leadership which are obviously unacceptable. Such as "lift all sanctions and then we'll talk about our (peaceful, civilian) nuclear programme". Their words, my brackets. That's not going to happen. But it seems like Biden is thinking about the possibility of lifting a very small number of sanctions just to encourage Tehran to stop enriching uranium beyond the 20 per cent they have already achieved. Tehran, for undestandable reasons I think, are saying, "Well Trump absconded from the deal, so it's up to you, Washington, to come up with something enticing to make us all happy again". Lifting every sanction ain't going to happen but it probably is time for Biden to offer something, although the way Iran has been flagrantly violating the 2015 deal by marching forward with enriching uranium to a higher grade than was allowed under the Obama agreement means Biden can't be too nice to Tehran. The key thing will be who wins the Iranian election. The chances are it will be someone more conservative than the present lot, so any talks with Washington will be even tougher. It's worth remembering, however, that all things nuclear in Iran actually rest, not with the elected president, but with the Supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has been around for so long he knows all the tricks and won't allow any new president to act without his sayso. Khamenei has watched Iran's economy cratering and the younger generation of Iranians getting increasingly angry and desperate. So maybe he will decide that with Biden in the White House he has a chance to reverse the downward spiral and revive the 2015 nuclear deal. There is a big obstacle in the way and that's trust. Iran doesn't trust the US to honour any new agreement because of what Trump did, and Washington doesn't believe that Iran's nuclear programme is peaceful. Obama didn't believe it either but was prepared to gamble with Tehran. Trump didn't believe it and thought Iran would pursue a nuclear bomb with or without the 2015 deal. Now Biden is prepared to follow Obama and take a risk once again. Ayatollah Khamenei must believe he has more cards to play than Biden and is currently enjoying the poker rituals. Israel will be watching closely, especially if Bibi Netanyahu manages to do his usual Houdini trick and form another government rather than go to jail.

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