Saturday 10 April 2021

Iran continues to flout 2015 nuclear deal

It's hardly surprising that the US is worried that Iran isn't that serious about restarting negotiations on the much-abused 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran described the first round of indirect talks - ie not directly with the US - as constructive which sounded reasonably hopeful. But then Ayatalloha Hassan Rouhani, the president, went off and officially inaugurated a new advanced centrifuge system at Natanz nuclear facility that will boost the chances of enriching uranium to the required 90 per cent level needed to have weapons-grade material for a bomb. It's obvious what game the Iranian president is playing. Like the Taliban in Afghanistan stepping up killings to put maximum pressure on the US and Kabul government to get what they want politically, so Tehran is demonstrating it has the technology to make a nuclear bomb to pile the pressure on Washington, even while claiming all the activity at Natanz is about peaceful, civilian nuclear power. I think most people believed that to be untrue several decades ago. Certainly the Americans have never believed it, and definitely Israel has never believed it. According to the Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran could have built a nuclear bomb but he has always insisted that to do so would be in violation of Islam, and being the chief cleric in the country he says it is forbidden. The reason why it's banned is because under the rules of the religion it is wrong to produce weapons that could kill millions of people. So why are the US and Israel so convinced this is hogwash? Well, it's simple. Iran has attempted to develop its nuclear programme clandestinely, it has already enriched uranium beyond the level required for civilian nuclear power, and with all the oil it has the country doesn't need nuclear power. The launching of the new gas centrifuges at Natanz is the latest brinkmanship step to put Iran in a good position to pressurise the Biden administration to start lifting sanctions. Biden has already made clear that he is not going to just lift all the sanctions if a revised deal can be negotiated. Right now it looks like Tehran wants to push ahead as rapidly as possible with its uranium-enrichment to make it more difficult for the US to reenter the 2015 nuclear-deal family without offering extensive relief on sanctions.

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