Biden's Afghan envoy sounds optimistic!

It is difficult to feel even remotely optimistic about Afghanistan's prospects for peace and happiness for all after the US and coalition forces have left later this year. But one voice has sounded a little tiny bit of hope. Zalmay Khalilzad, special envoy for Afghanistan appointed by Trump and staying on under Biden, has told Congress he doesn't think Kabul will fall to the Taliban as a consequence of the withdrawal. Well he actually said he didn't think the Afghan government would "imminently collapse" after September 11. I assume by that he means the Kabul government won't immediately fall after that date. He believes that the Afghan security forces will be able to hold back the Taliban if they launch an attack on the capital. Khalilzad is an Afghan-born American with huge experience of the trials and tribulations of his country of birth but I fear his optimism is on shakey ground. The Taliban are so cock-a-hoop about Biden's decision to withdraw unconditionally all troops by September 11 that they will feel this is a gift for them to exploit as soon as the last soldier has flown out. The over-the-horizon force the US is hoping to establish will be for counter-terrorism operations, not for stopping the Taliban taking control of Kabul. The Taliban knows this and may feel sufficiently confident to have a go at taking Kabul. But one thing that makes me wonder whether Khalilzad could be right is that the Taliban are still basically a foot-soldier force. They have a few American Humvee armoured vehicles which they captured, but generally they fight with guns, rocket-propelled grenades, improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers, wearing turbans and flip-flops. The Afghan government forces have armoured vehicles, artillery and combat-capable aircraft. So they should be able to withstand a Taliban attack provided they stand by their posts and keep fighting. If the US military are right, they won't last long without Anerican help. If Khalilzad is right, they will hold Kabul and keep the Taliban at bay. Let's hope the veteran Khalilzad's optimism is better founded than we fear.