Will the world be a safer place under Biden or Trump?

Will the steady hand of President Joe Biden or the wild gesticulating of President Donald Trump bring a safer world? The way the world is going it's hard to see which of the two men is more likely to contribute towards global stability, peace and prosperity. Trump's unpredictability and liking for instinctive go-it-alone announcements have certainly added a certain je ne sais quoi to world politics but I doubt that has made the planet a safer place. It has certainly irritated Xi Zinping, the Chinese president, caused Vladimir Putin to smile and flex his chest muscles, confused Kim Jong-un to such an extent he seems to be not in the best of health right now and angered beyond description the ayatollahs in Tehran. Plus most of Europe has had enough of Trump and Trumpism. But will Biden's more nice-man approach keep everyone happy? Well, first of all, except in Moscow, there will be a huge sigh of relief. However, I fear that after Trump's battering approach towards foreign policy, not many capitals are going to be in the mood for doing instant deals, whether trade, diplomacy or nuclear (in the case of Tehran and Pyongyang) with Biden in the White House. There will be a period of curiosity, suspicion and wait-and-see. What's most important is for Washington and Moscow to get together to extend the New Start Treaty to maintain or reduce the level of nuclear warheads each country has for another set period. The current treaty is due to end on February 5 2021. Trump insists on having China as part of the negotations because Beijing has been accelerating its nuclear warhead stockpile. China has shown no interest but might Beijing agree under President Biden, rather than under President Trump? With the Chinese you never know and I haven't any idea whether Xi Zinping might prefer to do a deal with Biden or Trump. But what I can predict is that at this stage if China continues to show absolutely no interest in joining strategic nuclear arms reduction, Beijing will get a much tougher response from Trump than from Biden. That's all I'm saying. I'm not advocating a second-term Trump but I think Trump will be tougher than Biden in confronting the rising threat posed by China. Putin would definitely prefer Trump to win but does that mean he will be ready to do a nuclear deal with him? He just might because Russia can't afford a nuclear arms race. You could argue that on that basis he might also be prepared to come to a deal with Biden. The answer to the question above is therefore impossible to say right now. Either way we are in for an unsettling period in world politics.