Thursday 9 May 2019

Is John Bolton on a war high?

John Bolton, the heavily moustacheod national security adviser in the White House, is apparently a danger to the US constitution. His predecessor, Lieutenant-General HR McMaster, referred in remarks to people in the White House who posed this sort of danger. He didn't name names but he didn't have to. He must have meant Bolton who is so hawkish you can imagine him standing beside Donald Trump in the Oval Office whispering "War, Mr President, it's time for war". Right now Bolton is in the lead on Iran, North Korea and Venezuela. It could be military action at any time in any of these countries. But Bolton is an old hand at this game. He may herald from the Cold War period but he is a cunning fox. He knows that Trump is not a commander-in-chief who wants to send troops to fight yet another war. He wants US troops to have huge influence but preferably without fighting and dying. Despite his strong public rhetoric, particularly against Iran and Venezuela, I doubt Bolton is pushing for war in either country because he won't want to cause divisions between himself and the commander-in-chief. I think he's trying, not so subtly, to remind Trump that the US has superpower military powers and force projection and that they are always available to sort out the bad guys. I doubt Trump needs reminding. But it was interesting that it was Bolton who announced the dispatching of the aircraft carrier to the Middle East as a warning to Iran and that, apparently, it was the Pentagon which asked him to make the announcement. So Pat Shanahan, acting defence secretary, who would normally have announced such a move, wanted it to come from the White House. Jim Mattis must have shuddered in his boots when he realised what was going on. The former defence secretary definitely would have made such an announcement. After all, it's strictly Pentagon business. But Bolton seemed happy to announce the manouevre on the Pentagon's behalf. Sending a carrier doesn't mean there will be a war with Iran. However, Tehran has given the European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal 60 days to go ahead with lifting sanctions as per the agreement or face a renewal of Iranian uranium-enrichment. The Europeans have refused to buckle under the ultimatum and have told Iran not to renege on any aspect of the nuclear deal. So the presence of a US carrier strike force in the Gulf won't do any harm. As for Venezuela, Bolton can't really think that sending in the US Marines will bring peace and stability to the country but he's clearly playing the tough cop in the debate in the Oval Office about what to do with Nicolas Maduro, the Bad Man of Caracas. And North Korea? There is no way Trump is going to go to war with North Korea because he is clinging like mad to his love relationship with Kim Jong-un and doesn't want to destroy that just because the North Korean leader is firing off a few weapons and missiles. Bolton knows this. So it's very much all rhetoric at this stage.

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