Saturday 18 May 2019

General Petraeus in an extraordinary warning to Iran

General David Petraeus doesn't come out much into the public limelight these days but in an ABC interview due to air tomorrow (Sun) he explicitly warns Tehran not to push their luck over confronting the US. It's actually an extraordinary intervention because he is effectively giving the ayatollahs a piece of advice, as well as a warning. In remarks put out today to publicise the ABC interview, he warns Tehran that he is not sure how Trump will react if Iran dares to mount some sort of attack on American forces in the Middle East but he fears it would be "punitive". I don't know whether Petraeus, still a legendary figure despite his premature departure as CIA director after his affair with his biographer was exposed, spoke to the White House first before agreeing to be interviewed. There is no obligation for him to, but he is a close friend of General Jack Keane, retired vice chief of the US Army, whom Trump not only thinks a lot of, but consults him on things like Iran. Basically Petraeus, with his remarks, is doing Trump a favour because the president does not want a war with Iran, and he's also doing a favour to Tehran because the ayatollahs will probaby respect what he says and take it on board. We know from the past that Iranian political and military leaders calculate very carefully what they think they can get away with without having the full wrath of the US military down on their heads. But their threshold might be too high under the present circumstances. One false move and they could get a blast of American retaliation. Petraeus puts it this way: "They're going to have to be very careful not to overplay their hand and result in some kind of response that is quite punitive." Bizarrely in his ABC interview he also says that Iran should "grit their teeth and get to November 2020 in hopes that their desired outcome emerges." What on earth does he mean by that other than, "Hey Iran, bide your time until the next US election and you might get dear old Joe Biden in the White House who will reinstate the 2015 nuclear deal and make sweet music with you." Is that what Petraues meant? Very strange advice from such a senior figure in the US establishment and it won't help Biden if he is seen to be a softy on Iran. Be that as it may, Tehran would be wise to hold their fire because even though Trump is opposed to having any sort of war with Iran, a reckless attack by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that ends up with American fatalities will definitely push Trump to give the green light for a shower of bombs. Surely Tehran knows that? If they don't, then I suggest every Iranian tunes into ABC tomorrow to hear Petraeus speak.

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