Is Boris going to walk it to 10 Downing Street?

At the moment it looks as if Boris Johnson, former flamboyant Mayor of London and former flamboyant foreign secretary, is a few weeks away from becoming the next prime minister. He's very popular among Tory voters, he's worshipped by quite a lot of Tory MPs and he's, well, flamboyant, charismatic, funny and often outrageous, none of which qualities describe the outgoing Theresa May. The Tory MPs and party membership will almost definitely vote for someone totally different from Theresa, and Boris is probably the answer. But in the weeks ahead he is going to have to keep a very steady pace, keep his wilder thoughts to himself and try not to say something which will give him unwelcome headlines. He also needs to be absolutely clear how precisely he thinks he can deliver a Brexit deal. He hasn't started well. He has already said that whatever happens, deal or no deal, the UK will leave the EU on October 31. That must have pleased his fellow Brexiteers, certainly the ones who have never discounted a no-deal solution. But Remainers in the Tory camp will have grave doubts about selecting a man who doesn't seem to care whether he gets a decent deal or not. Much more in this vein and Boris could find himself falling rapidly down the favourites' list. But he's a canny fellow, Boris. He thinks a remark like that will wake people up and stir the leadership pot. He also knows that the great British public is so fed up with the word Brexit that if the UK really is going to leave the EU on October 31 come what may, there are going to be some Vote for Boris posters going up around the country. Nevertheless, if he gives the impression that he's just doing his usual stuff and shooting from the hip without demonstrating he has put a lot of thought behind his Brexit remarks, his colleagues in the Tory party might come to the conclusion that it would simply be too dangerous to vote for him. The key thing now is to watch who else steps forward to try for the leadership of the Tory party. So far, we have Boris, Esther McVey, a former minister, Jeremy Hunt, Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, former Brexit Secretary, and a real outsider, Rory Stewart, International Development Secretary and the only cabinet minister to have walked across Afghanistan. None of them are going to cause Boris much trouble. But what if Michael Gove, the very brainy Environment Secretary, steps forward? Could he be a serious challenge to Boris? Remember he knifed Boris in the back the last leadership race, initially acting as kingmaker to the blond bombshell and then announcing to the world on television that he had changed his mind because he didn't think Boris was up to it, and offered himself instead. Wow, that was a serious bit of treachery, and it did Gove no good at all because Theresa May was the leadership winner, not him. In the popularity stakes, Gove is far behind Boris. But he is a Brexiteer and he might become the sensible, pratical option.