The UK is hanging on to its future by its fingertips

As I thought and predicted, Theresa May came away last night from seeing Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, with a piece of legal drivel on paper which really hasn't altered the status quo one bit. A true Brexiteer wouldn't be seen dead putting up his or her hand in approval for a piece of paper full of legal jargon which, as the UK attorney general succinctly put it, "reduces the risk" of the infamous Irish backstop being used by the EU as a permanent device to hold the UK to ransom. Only reduces the risk, not removes it altogether. Which means that at some stage in the future when trade talks between the EU and UK break down with no agreement, the backstop will still be singing and dancing and dictating relations with the EU. Or, in simple terms, the EU will still have the trump (NOT Trump) card which will force the UK to remain in the customs union for ever. And if the UK is obliged to stay in the customs union in order to avoid the return of security checks on the North/South Irish border, it will prevent Her Majesty's Government from negotiating trade deals with countries outside the EU because the UK will have to abide by the EU trade rules. OK, if the EU and UK have wonderful trade relationship talks and all is agreed amicably over the next two years, and the backstop is lifted, then life will be fine. But judging by the last two and a half years of bitter in-fighting over the UK's exit from the EU, it seems highy unlikely that all will go well when the trade talks start. Ergo, the Brexiteers will never support a Brexit deal in which the Irish backstop remains a huge elephant in the conference room. I am writing this three hours before the vote is due in the House of Commons. Anyone who is good at maths will be working out the numbers right now and coming to the conclusion that Theresa May is going to lose by between 100 and 150 votes. We're too late for miracles. What we are in for is total impasse. The latest version of the Brexit deal is thrown out. MPs then vote by a huge majority against a no-deal Brexit. Then they vote for an extension to Article 50 so we dont have to leave the EU on March 29 and will have another couple of months' grace to go back to negotiating a better deal!!! But for heaven's sake, surely that will be a complete waste of time. Juncker has already stated there will be no third chance. So it will be two more months of fruitless back-and-forth trips to Brussels and Strasbourg and in the meantime the UK will have to continue paying the EU the vast sums it is obliged to fork out as a member of the EU. Probably at least $1 billion a month. Everyone in the political world knows this, so why are they playing this ridiculous game? In my view, Brexit is dead. We tried and failed. Brexiteers certainly failed. The UK will have to stay in the EU and who runs the UK in the foreseeable future, God knows!!