Friday 22 March 2019

Theresa May's time is running out - again

Theresa May could not be in a tighter spot. She now has deadlines that will impact not just on her Brexit deal but on her role as prime minister, her future, our future, the EU's future. The arithmatic is totally against her. She still seems to believe that she will get her Brexit deal passed by the House of Commons at the third time of asking. Why does she think that? Her defeat if she does have another go next week will not be so catastrophic as the first and second attempts but she will still be defeated because there is no way 149 MPs who voted against her the second time are going to throw in the towel and vote for her this time. It is inconceivable that there could be such a change-around, even appreciating the intense blackmail pressure that will be on each MP to sign up to the deal which a lot of people claim is terrible. Theresa now has two deadlines: get her deal approved between now and April 12, and if she does then she will have until May 22 to get it through the necessary legislation. But if she fails in the next two weeks to get her deal passed, she will have to come up with an alternative or alternatives sufficiently of interest to the 27 EU nations or face crashing out without a deal. But she has shown no interest in anything other than her deal. She doesn't want to even listen to Jeremy Corbyn's whimperngs about staying in the customs union and single market. And she dismisses out of hand revoking Article 50, thus scrapping Brexit altogether, despite the fact that there is now a petition running on the parliamentary website calling for just that - an end to Brexit - which has so far attracted more than 2.4 million signatures, including mine. If she puts her deal to the vote next week which would seem to me to be suicidal, and loses, there will be a huge momentum for her to resign and hand over the deadly chalice to some other poor sucker. What good that would do, heaven knows. Theresa is also totally against a second referendum, and presumably knows that a general election would be a disaster for the Tories. So no one wants that. I think there is a very good chance that our prime minister will literally barricade heself inside Number Ten Downing Street and refuse to let anyone else in. The only possible option is now being canvassed around Westminster which is to put half a dozen or so possible alternatives to Parliament which the MPs could vote on, including having a second referendum or revoking Article 50. But can you imagine the complexities of doing that and the sheer chaos that will cause in the House of Commons, with MPs not knowing which way to turn?

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