Wednesday 20 March 2019

No deal Brexit now short-odds favourite

Both Theresa May and the EU are now engaged in blackmail. Theresa says to all MPs, "You have until June 30 to sign up to my Brexit deal whether you like or not," and the EU in the form of Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, says, "You can only have until June 30 if you agree the Brexit deal." My immediate instinct is that the hard-core Brexiteers will respond to that by continuing to screw everything up in Parliament so that the UK will leave on June 30 without a deal of any kind. This is what they truly want. Assuming the EU is not going to budge on the deal itself, just play around the edges - the Irish edges - there is no point in having three more months unless the Brexiteers who basically hate Theresa's deal totally change their minds. Why would they do that? And by the way they cetainly don't want what Jeremy Corbyn, alleged Labour leader, is going around proposing which is the softest Brexit on paper, continuing with full membership of the EU customs union and single market. So no-deal Brexit is approaching fast and furious, even though the majority of MPs voted against it. But, for some reason I don't quite understand, that vote was not legally binding. It was just an expression of what most MPs did not want. Whatever happens now, the UK WILL leave on June 30. There will be no more delays. The EU will not stand for it, the UK voters will not stand for it, and the Brexiteers will definitely not stand for it. There is no better deal in the wings ready to be adopted in place of Theresa's hard-fought agreement. Unless of course she resigns, the Tory Party implodes, there is a general election and Jeremy Corbyn enters 10 Downing Street as prime minister. None of this can happen in just three months but even if it could I would rather a no-deal Brexit any day!

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