Friday 25 May 2018

Who wins out of the North Korea debacle?

Well nobody actually wins out of the Trump/Kim Jong-un summit that never took place. But who will take some satisfaction out of the cancelled summit? Not Trump because his tactics failed. What about Kim? I think he will feel quietly pleased because he has shown that whatever ultimatums or demands come from Washington he has stood up to the threats. He still has his nuclear weapons, and he probably feels confident that Trump will not dare to resort to military strike action now because he, Kim, has kept the door open to future talks. He has also strengthened his links to Beijing. I think Kim and his aides did what Beijing wanted. President Xi Zinping did not like the way things were going. All that talk of a Nobel peace prize for Trump! Xi put down his marker. He must have told Kim, "This is all going too fast, your nukes are too important for your country's survival, so hang on and wait for another occasion to talk to Trump. Meanwhile follow my orders." So of course Xi Zinping is satisfied. He may have condemned North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programme in the past but right now the Chinese leader sees Kim's nukes as a useful leverage against the US. Xi is not interested in a Nobel peace prize but he is interested in Chinese hegemony in the Asia Pacific, and the less influence and power and respect Trump has in the region the better for Beijing. So, yes, Xi is pleased. He will think that Trump has lost and that will make him chuckle. Of course he will pretend still to be Trump's best friend but he will be more concerned about keeping Kim on board. He has certainly achieved that.

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