Iran threatens

May 12 is going to be an important date for the whole world. The knives have now been drawn. Trump versus Iran. Just when we thought we could settle down to the prospect of a summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un sometime later this month or early next month, attention has switched full scale to Iran. May 12 is the day Trump has to recertify the 2015 Iran deal which he hates hates hates, or opt the US out of the agreement and reimpose sanctions against Tehran until the Iranian regime agrees to stop enriching uranium for ever and pulls back all of its special forces and militia currently stirring it up throughout the Middle East. Iran's president Hassan Rouhani prepared the world for trouble in the event of Trump scrapping America's participation in the nuclear deal by warning that it would be an historic mistake. Plenty of implied venom in that statement. If the US goes ahead with ending the 2015 deal, it can't really survive, even though there were multiple signatures on the document - China, Russia, UK, France and Germany. Even if the other signatories maintain their part of the bargain and keep lifting sanctions against Iran, Tehran will consider Trump's exit from the deal as a sign that the agreement is over. Then what? It will be a disaster for the Iranian economy but will Rouhani then say uranium-enrichment is back on course. Of course Rouhani is still saying they don't want to develop nuclear weapons, but no one, I mean no one, believes that. Do the Iranian people believe that? Surely not. And if the scrapping of the nuclear deal becomes a reality on May 12, what will Trump and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) do if Tehran starts a rapid nuclear bomb fruition programme? Has Trump thought it through? I mean all the way through? Yes, the current deal is stupidly short-lived, but what are the consequences going to be of a direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran? Perhaps Trump thinks that if he starts threatening to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, like he did with North Korea, it will end up with a terrific summit somewhere and all will be well. Oh dear I don't think that's going to happen. Iran is one of the toughest nuts to crack on the planet. The Ayatollahs know that and might enjoy their battle with Trump. That could lead to more violence in the Middle East, more threats against Israel, and potential military action in the Gulf. Let's hope Trump and Mike Pompeo, his new secretary of state, have pondered all these things.