Tuesday 22 May 2018

Trump and Kim Jong-un super summit unravelling

There's always a risk when you break a dramatic news story with so much hype and hyperbole that expectations are raised to a stratospheric level. So, after the Trump announcement that he was to meet with Kim Jong-un to discuss denuclearising the Korean peninsula, everyone's imagination went wild. North Korea was going to be friends with the US and throw away its nuclear weapons!!! Ok, that was never going to happen, not just like that anyway. But there was so much optimism around, partly generated by Trump and boosted by what appeared to be a successful meeting between Kim Jong-un and President Moon of South Korea, that it was difficult not to be caught up in the new mood of hope. But as soon as it was announced on May 10 that the planned summit would take place on June 12, more than a month later, it almost guaranteed that detailed planning would start to go wrong. It might have been better if Trump and Kim had met straightaway just to get acquainted, and then have a second meeting to really get down to business. Now, the closer the summit gets, the more likely it is that disagreements on both sides will force Washington and Pyongyang to delay or call off the whole idea. There is so much at stake that it's almost impossible for either or both parties to reach any kind of meaningful deal before the summit in Singapore. Tempers have already been lost thanks to John Bolton's unfortunate intervention comparing Kim Jong-un to the fate that befell Colonel Gaddafi after he gave up his country's nuclear weapons. Now, as US and North Korean officials negotiate how the summit should go, Kim is clearly getting angry about Trump's ultimatums. There is little real point in having a summit if Trump's first words to Kim are going to be: "Before we start I want a written assurance from you now that you will give up ALL your nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles." After reading all of Trump's tweets and having followed his remarks to reporters, Kim is now under no illusion that that is precisely what Trump intends to do. So he might just think, "What's the point? I didn't get where I am today by throwing away everything I've done to get to this point." The summit could be doomed before it begins. This would be a huge mistake on Washington's part. There is potential for a genuine breakthrough, not elmination of nukes in North Korea, not yet, but still a golden opportunity to begin the process. That's more than we have had for a long time and it would be irresponsible to chuck it in the bin at the first meeting. Cool it, Trump. Be tough, sure. But cool it for the sake of a long-term dramatic change on the Korean peninsula.

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