Saturday 12 May 2018

Can we all be optimistic about Kim Jong-un?

Is it now time to stop being cynical about Kim Jong-un? Could he possibly be the real deal? Has he had some early-hours dream in which he found himself at the pinnacle of a mountain looking down on his green and prosperous land, sipping cocktails with Donald Trump? Is Kim Jong-un a born-again philanthropist, a young man who has seen the error of his ways and the ways of his father and grandfather and now wants to be seen as a proper human being determined to bring happiness, love and food to his people? No so long ago I would have laughed at such a thought. I would have said, yeah right, this is all about moving North Korea into the 21st century...I don't think so. Why, because there is always one question that has to be asked. What about the nukes? What will he do with his nuclear warheads and his long-range ballistic missiles? Will he really give them up? I still think the answer is No. But the more he is prepared to give away - quite a lot so far - and the more positive reaction he gets from Washington, the more pleased he will be about the prospects of being treated by the rest of the world as a leader to do business with. And that, in my view, might just make the difference. He will get more and more confident that his regime will survive, that Trump won't ever invade North Korea and that he will live a long and settled life and one of his children will succeed him. BUT he will still say to Trump, "Look, Mr President, you are a reasonable man. If you were in my shoes you would not give away all your military power just to feed your people. You need always to be strong. You and me, we are alike, you are America First, I am North Korea First. So let me be strong, like you are strong, and we can all live happily ever after." This is going to be very very tricky for Trump. That reasonable argument will not go down well. He wants ALL of Kim's nukes to be dismantled and destroyed. Then and only then will he help North Korea to match South Korea in economic prosperity. Kim is going to have a red line and that means a North Korea accepted as a nuclear power. It could still all go wrong. Unless Kim really has had that dream of greatness and feels eternal friendship with Trump is the way forward for his regime. I am far less cynical than I was but remain understandably sceptical.

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