Tuesday 4 July 2017

Is Kim Jong-un scared of Trump?

I wonder what Kim Jong-un thinks of Trump. Is he scared of him? He certainly wasn't scared of Obama. Is he scared of Xi Zinping? Is he scared of Putin? I reckon the answer to all those questions is no. The reason is that he has got away with what he wanted to do ever since taking over from his father. He has called everyone's bluff and has just carried on doing what he does best, developing and testing ballistic missiles, developing and testing nuclear warheads, and starving his people. No one has stopped him. Sanctions have been worse than useless, and the pressure from Washington, Beijing, and now Moscow, to freeze his missile programme, he seems to disregard with ease. Now Trump, not for the first time, has warned that he is running out of patience with Kim. The trouble is when he said that before, everyone, including no doubt President Zinping, sat up and thought: "Oh my God, what is Trump going to do?" Well, actually nothing. And now he has said it again. Saying you are running out of patience is getting close to saying there is a red line beyond which Kim must not cross. But, as we all know, warning of red lines in politics, especially in superpower politics, is a dangerous game. Obama liked to use the phrase but lived to regret it. Trump has so far avoided using the phrase, but has turned instead to a sort of big sigh of impatience. How long, one might ask, does it take for patience to run out completely? And when it does, what do you, as president of the United States, do next? Trump has at least twice told Beijing that if it can't rein in Kim, then the US is prepared to go it alone. But go it alone to do what? If I'm asking this question, then you can bet Kim Jong-un is asking exactly the same question, and probably coming up with: "I don't think Trump, despite his bravura personality, has the balls to take me on. So yah boo sucks." The trouble is, no one wants the US to take on North Korea militarily because of the awful potential consequences. I mean terrifying consequences. Not for the US which is nice and far away, despite Kim's claim of being able to reach the polar bears in Alaska with his latest ballistic missile. But for South Korea and Japan, where thousands of US troops are based, and possibly the US military base at Guam. Kim must have been through this scenario in his mind a million times. He loves to boast about being able to hit the US but he can't possibly want a full-scale war in the region which he will lose. So, feeling relatively reassured that Trump will not order his generals to bomb North Korea to bits, Kim's policy, if that is the right word, is to carry on regardless and keep raising the stakes, so that one day, possibly in the next two years, he can announce to the world that his boys have successfully miniaturised nuclear warheads to fit on the end of his longest-range ballistic missiles, and that he has joined the exclusive nuclear club. So watch out! Trump has declared that that won't happen. But it WILL happen unless Trump considers taking preemptive action of some sort within the next two years. Kim probably believes Trump is all bluster, so he will risk the future of his country by snubbing his nose at Washington, Beijing and Moscow. China is never going to attack North Korea. Russia is never going to attack North Korea. Only the US would consider it. But right now the only thing that might upset Kim's luxury-style living is a slightly nagging question: what does Trump mean when he says he's running out patience? But he then probably shakes his head and tucks into his bacon and scramble egg.

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