Thursday 30 November 2023

The war in Gaza is now very complex

I don't know how long the Israelis thought their war in Gaza would last but I bet it wouldn't have been longer than three months. But now there are so many additional complexities that it looks like it could go on for much longer. In other words, well into next year. The war has to be seen from multiple perspectives: more fighting between Israel and Hamas in the north and then switching to the south; the humanitarian disaster which is getting worse by the day; the herding of Palestinian citizens to alleged places of safety in some patch of territory in the south, away from the expected fighting in that part of Gaza; the releaase of more hostages; diplomatic/political to-and-froing between Washington and Tel Aviv; and world opinion. All these factors have to be taken into account by Binyamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet over the next few weeks. They are all so interlinked, Netanyahu has to guage how one element will impact on the other elements as he makes decisions. For all these reasons, this terrible war could go on for a long time. With the Ukraine/Russsia war looking to go on for ever, Joe Biden will have very little time to campaign to beat Donald Trump in the November election next year.

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