Saturday, 4 November 2023
How long will Hezbollah wait?
Even though the leader of Hamas indicated Hezbollah would remain on the sdelines at the moment and that Hamas was on its own in its war with Israel, there will be serious concerns in Tel Aviv and Washington that the terrorist-designated group in Lebanon could change its mind and eventually join forces. Hezbollah has already launched rocket attacks across the border but the Iran-backed terror organisation has hundreds of thousands of rockets which if launched in a massive barrage would present Israel's Iron Dome defence system with its greatest challenge. The danger is that if Hezbollah did launch an attack on a large scale, the US might be forced to enter the war, using its carrier-borne fighter jets to attack targets in southern Lebanon. This could potentially be a disastrous move because other potential players in this Middle East crisis, especially Iran, could then join in too. At this stage in the war my instinctive feeling is that neither Hezbollah nor Iran want to choose this moment in history to go all out against Israel. The US has assembled a huge naval force in the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Gulf, so both Hezbollah and Iran know what will happen if they join Hamas. I doubt Iran will risk it and Tehran effectively runs Hezbollah. So, at least for the next few weeks, it's Israel versus Hamas and the other Islamic groups in Gaza. For this reason it is imperative that Israel completes its objective - the elimination of Hamas - as quickly as possible.
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