Saturday, 25 November 2023
After the pause in fighting how will Israel continue the war?
After four days of no airstrikes or artillery bombardment in Gaza, there is going to be a huge appetite for a permanent ceasefire. But Israel has vowed to carry on where it left off before the first pause-for-hostage-release ceasefire. But I think it's going to get increasingly difficult for Israel to prosecute the war in southern Gaza in the same way it did in the north for seven weeks. And this is what Hamas is counting on. The strategy is obvious. If Israel starts battering the south and destroying apartment blocks where Hamas is said to be hiding beneath, Hamas will probably announce it will release no more hostages until the bombardment stops. Tel Aviv will then come under huge pressure from the hostage families, as well as from Washington and the world to stop. Then what does Binyamin Netanyahu do? He has committed to eliminating Hamas and has Washington's backing. But reducing southern Gaza towns and cities to rubble would bring worldwide condemnation. As I wrote yesterday, Hamas holds the trump cards because it can play the hostages game for as long as it wants. For Netanyahu to achieve his objective before his own people and the rest of the world turn against him, time is running out.
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