Ukraine needs a major breakthrough

More than at any time in this war in Ukraine, Kyiv needs a major success on the battlefield, something to rock back the Russians, to make them doubt their ability to defend the territory they have seized. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has yet to achieve that and it may never do so. But with the full weight of Western-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles at their disposal, you would have thought it would be possible to breach the Russian defences and force them back. The US Army Abrams battle tanks won't be delivered until the autumn, so they won't be playing a part in the Ukrainian efforts to dislodge the Russian troops. But there are enough Leopards and Challenger 2s to cause problems for the Russians. The trouble is quite a lot of Leopards have been damaged or destroyed, so the confidence of the Ukrainian military has suffered as a result. Zelensky has praised his troops for their successful counter-offensive but progress is still desperately slow. I'm sure Zelensky wakes up every morning and says to himself: "If only we had the Abrams tanks and F-16s now." When the history is written about Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the length of time it has taken the US to supply F-16s will be one of the most significant footnotes. The F-16s won't win the war but when they do arrive, they will absolutely make a big difference.