Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Dangerous tit-for-tat in war in Ukraine

Ukraine's special security unit launches a naval drone packed with explosives against the Kerch bridge linking the mainland to Crimea and there is instant revenge from Moscow. It's a tit-for-tat war. The damage to the bridge is not irrepairable but it will take a month or two to get the road network running fully again. Ukraine must have known that Putin would get his own back. That's the way he works. So a shower of missiles were launched from warships in the Black Sea against Ukrainian cities and, just like that, Moscow scrapped the deal allowing Ukrainian commercial ships to pass safely through the Black Sea filled with grain bound for Africa and elsehere. Grain exports are of course vital to Ukraine's economic well-being. The Kerch bridge, Kyiv says, is a legitimate target because it's a supply line for the tens of thousands of Russian troops based in Crimea. It is difficult to argue against that logic, so as Ukraine's naval drones acquire longer range and greater explosive payloads, I have no doubt there will be more attacks on the bridge in the future. Ukraine wants Crimea back and hitting the bridge is no clearer way of getting the message across to Moscow that Kyiv's ultimate aim is to liberate the peninsula and drive the Russian troops out. But the ban on grain exports is a huge card in Putin's hands. But he has a problem. China buys Ukraine's grain, so Putin might be having a phone call from his dear friend Xi Zinping any day now!

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