Monday 3 July 2023

Should Ukraine join Nato?

There are good arguments for Ukraine joining Nato once the war is over - if it ever does end. But there are also many reasons why it would be a bad and highly provocative move to let Ukraine into the alliance. The good arguments are obvious. Ukraine already has had western weapons, training, funding and advice, the sort of benefits that go with alliance membership. Kyiv, under President Zelensky, is fanatically pro-western and desperately in need of protection for ever from Russia which will never give up its hope of absorbing Ukraine under its wing like the good old Soviet Union days. Nato membership could/would deter Russia from attacking Ukraine in the future. The other arguments are these. Theoretically, if he is not replaced, Putin could be in power in Moscow until 2036. He has warned Nato again and again against moving ahead with more expansion eastwards. Ukraine and Georgia were on the possible membership agenda at Nato's summit in Prague in 2004, but sensible alliance leaders (not George W Bush) argued against, saying it was too early and appeared to think it should never happen because of the provocation it implied vis a vis relations with Russia. Every country wishing to join Nato also has to meet certain standards in terms of military competence, democratic values and lack of corruption. At that time corruption was a major issue against Ukraine's membership. Steps have been taken under Zelensky but corruption will remain a concern. The biggest issue is whether Ukraine membership of Nato will lead to more stability in the wider European family? Peace and stability are the bedrock raison d'etre of the alliance. No one can tell while there is a war going on in Ukraine whether Kyiv membership will have a positive or negative impact. Either way it's going to be a gamble. My own view is that Nato pushed too far, too quickly in absorbing so many additional countries into the alliance without really thinking of the consequences. In other words, it was more like a crusade than a sensible, practical policy. It's partly why there is a war in Europe right now. The main reason is Putin's paranoia and his aggressive imperialist dreams. But Nato expansion didn't help. So Ukraine should be given a special defence relationship with the alliance and meaningful security protection. But full membership, with Nato troops and tanks permanently based on the borders with Russia? It's difficult to see how that will spread peace and stability.

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